15th April 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $103.00/mt
API4 (April): $104.50/mt
Brent Crude: $95.47/bbl, up 0.72%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.25/mt, down 0.28%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,274/mt, down 0.15%
Markets remain driven by shifting expectations around a potential resolution to the U.S.–Iran conflict, with sentiment improving on the prospect of renewed negotiations. Energy has eased from recent highs, while metals are finding support from a combination of demand signals and improving risk appetite.
Coal
Energy markets were mixed, with European gas extending losses while oil remained broadly stable through most of the session before firming slightly into the close. Front-month gas declined by around 4.5%, while Brent crude ended approximately 1% higher.
Coal prices continued to track the weakness in gas, with both API2 and Newcastle (NEWC) indices moving lower. Newcastle saw the sharper declines, with the front month falling by close to $3.
Brent Crude
Oil prices have pulled back from the $100/bbl levels seen earlier in the week, with Brent trading around $95/bbl as markets weigh the likelihood of renewed U.S.–Iran talks. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end have helped ease immediate supply concerns, although mixed messaging continues to create uncertainty.
While there are indications that further negotiations could take place in the coming days, the situation remains fragile. Ongoing military activity in the region, combined with uncertainty over the status of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has prevented a full unwind of the geopolitical risk premium. Reports that Iran may pause shipping to support negotiations further complicate the outlook.
In the near term, oil is expected to remain volatile but rangebound. Markets continue to price in a temporary disruption, with the forward curve reflecting expectations that supply conditions will normalise over time.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices firmed, supported by strong underlying demand and improved sentiment linked to potential de-escalation in the Middle East. Futures and spot prices both moved higher, although physical trading activity remained subdued as steel mills continued to procure cautiously.
Demand remains near peak levels, with blast furnace utilisation and hot metal output holding firm. At the same time, supply is expected to increase modestly as earlier logistical constraints ease, though this additional material is likely to be absorbed by the market given current consumption levels.
Overall, iron ore is expected to maintain a firm but volatile trend in the short term, with strong demand providing downside support while macro developments continue to influence price direction.
Copper
Copper prices reached six-week highs, supported by renewed optimism around potential peace talks and improving demand signals from China. Strong import premiums and resilient physical buying have reinforced the constructive outlook, with sentiment across industrial metals improving.
However, gains were partially capped by a firmer U.S. dollar and profit-taking following the recent rally. Supply-side concerns, including disruptions to sulphur availability linked to the Middle East, continue to provide additional support to the market.
In the near term, copper is expected to remain well supported, though highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and incoming economic data from China.
Across the complex, the prospect of renewed negotiations has helped stabilise sentiment, though uncertainty remains elevated. Energy markets have eased but remain sensitive to developments around supply routes, while metals continue to balance supportive fundamentals against macro risk. Until clearer progress is made on a lasting resolution, markets are likely to remain reactive and headline-driven.
