24th March 2026
Global commodity markets remain highly reactive to rapidly shifting geopolitical signals, with conflicting narratives around the Middle East driving renewed volatility across energy and metals.
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: March API2 $119.50/mt ; March API4 $110.00/mt
Brent Crude: $103.55/bll; Up 3.61%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.65/mt; Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,111.50/mt; Down 0.44%
Coal
The energy complex delivered a mixed performance on the day. European gas opened softer and continued to decline, finishing approximately 6% lower. In contrast, oil prices strengthened, with front-month Brent crude rising close to 5% by the close.
API2 coal prices were weaker at the open and, although they recovered modestly intraday, still ended the session materially lower, largely tracking the weakness in gas. NEWC swaps saw heightened volatility, with the curve under pressure for much of the day. However, longer-dated contracts found support later in the session, with the Cal’27 contract trading across a range of more than $6.
Brent Crude
Oil markets moved higher in volatile trading, as renewed uncertainty around the US–Iran situation reignited concerns over supply disruption. Brent crude briefly tested the $100/bbl level intraday, recovering part of the sharp sell-off seen in the previous session. The rebound followed contradictory developments. While US President Donald Trump had earlier suggested a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure—citing “constructive” discussions—Tehran firmly denied any such talks had taken place, describing the claims as an attempt to influence markets. Reports of fresh strikes on Iranian energy facilities, alongside explosions in key regions such as Isfahan and Khorramshahr, further undermined the narrative of de-escalation.
Market sentiment was additionally supported by growing concerns that the conflict could widen. Regional powers including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have adopted a firmer stance, with indications that further escalation could draw additional participants into the conflict. At the same time, Iran has signalled no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz or engaging in direct negotiations with Washington. Against this backdrop, Brent settled higher on the day, reflecting a market increasingly pricing in prolonged disruption risk rather than near-term resolution.
Iron Ore
Iron ore markets edged higher, supported by improving demand indicators and continued supply tightness, although gains were capped by cautious downstream sentiment. Dalian futures strengthened in early trading before paring gains later in the session, with the most active contract settling at 824 RMB/tonne, up modestly on the day. Spot prices also increased marginally, with trading houses actively offering cargoes, while steel mills remained selective in procurement, keeping overall transaction volumes moderate.
On the demand side, blast furnace maintenance continued to decline, with the impact on hot metal production falling week-on-week and expected to ease further. This points to a gradual recovery in consumption. Meanwhile, supply conditions remain constrained, with no significant increases in output reported, providing ongoing support to prices. However, a degree of caution persists among market participants, with some capital remaining sidelined amid concerns over downstream risks. In the near term, iron ore is expected to consolidate at elevated levels within a relatively tight range.
Copper
Copper prices weakened as hopes of a geopolitical easing faded, prompting a shift back to risk-off sentiment. The metal, which had rebounded in the previous session on expectations of de-escalation, came under renewed pressure after Iran denied engaging in talks with the United States. The rejection of diplomatic progress, coupled with continued military activity across the region, reintroduced uncertainty and dampened investor confidence.
Ongoing hostilities—including missile and drone strikes across key regional targets—have reinforced concerns over broader economic implications. Elevated energy prices continue to pose inflationary risks, potentially influencing central bank policy and, by extension, industrial demand. Copper has now declined significantly over the month on the London Metal Exchange, although the recent correction has triggered renewed buying interest from China. Inventories have seen a notable drawdown, suggesting that lower prices are beginning to stimulate physical demand.
While near-term sentiment remains fragile, underlying fundamentals—particularly Chinese consumption and copper’s structural role in electrification and industrial growth—are expected to provide support and limit further downside.
Markets remain headline-driven, with sentiment shifting sharply on each new development. While periods of optimism continue to emerge, the lack of clarity around geopolitical outcomes is sustaining elevated volatility. In this environment, underlying supply constraints and resilient demand fundamentals suggest that downside may be limited, even as short-term price action remains erratic.
