India’s Iron Ore Imports Set to Hit 7-Year High

India’s iron ore imports are forecast to reach a seven-year high of 12–14 million metric tonnes in fiscal 2025–26 (April 2025–March 2026), more than doubling the prior year’s volume.
The surge is driven by persistent shortages of high-grade domestic ore and strong offtake from JSW Steel, India’s largest steelmaker by capacity. JSW’s mills at Dolvi in Maharashtra and Vijayanagar in Karnataka remain the primary importers, sourcing material to bridge the gap between expanding steel output and lagging mine production.
A rare cargo of BHP’s Jimblebar Fines—approximately 172 000 tonnes aboard the vessel True Champion—is en route to JSW’s Jaigarh port. The shipment, diverted from China amid Beijing’s ongoing restrictions on the product, reflects attractive discounts that have opened an opportunistic window for Indian buyers.
Brazil and Oman continue to dominate supply, accounting for roughly 70 % of total imports. Domestic production is projected to rise to 305 million tonnes in FY 2025–26 from 289 million tonnes the previous year, yet low-grade ore exports are expected to climb 26 % to 29 million tonnes, with 85 % destined for China.
On the pellet front, volumes from Iran have already reached 1.88 million tonnes between April and February—six times the prior-year level—but analysts anticipate a material decline. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with ample domestic pellet availability, are expected to constrain further import demand.
For iron-ore and commodity traders, the outlook points to sustained import momentum through the remainder of FY 2025–26, with JSW-led demand supporting premiums for high-grade fines. Forwarders and vessel operators should monitor Red Sea–Gulf routing risks and BHP diversion flows, as these dynamics will shape landed costs and prompt-side availability in the Indian market. The fundamentals remain firmly import-positive for the balance of the fiscal year.