11 November 2025
Commodity markets started the week on a cautiously positive note. Energy prices found modest support from political and supply-side developments, while metals traded mixed amid steady fundamentals and restrained investor sentiment.
Coal
Seaborne coal prices fell again today, diverging from the continued strength in China’s domestic market. Improved physical offers in both Europe and Australia weighed on sentiment, pushing swaps lower for a third consecutive session.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose today, touching $65/bll, as new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude disrupted supply chains, though oversupply concerns limited gains. Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi field, the most notable fallout yet from the sanctions. Reduced Russian fuel exports are providing short-term support, but a global crude glut continues to weigh on sentiment. OPEC+ has increased output by 2 million bpd since April and approved a further 137,000 bpd rise for December, though it plans to pause hikes in early 2026. Analysts warn that this expansion will likely keep the market oversupplied next year. Floating storage in Asia has also doubled as sanctions curb exports to China and India.
Spot Brent at 16h48 GMT – $65.10/bll, UP +1.62%
European LNG
European natural gas futures hovered around €31/MWh, near their lowest levels since May 2024. Ample LNG arrivals, steady Norwegian pipeline flows, and mild, windy weather have curbed demand and kept prices subdued. In Asia, weaker Chinese consumption due to warmer conditions released additional cargoes toward Europe, pushing imports to 101.38 million tonnes in the first ten months of 2025—up nearly 17 million tonnes year-on-year. Wind generation remains robust, though temperatures are expected to normalise by the end of the week. EU storage sits at 82.6%, slightly below last year but steadily improving. Rising concerns over renewed Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure may, however, add a note of caution to winter supply outlooks.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h50 GMT – €31.03/MWh, Up +0.22%
Iron Ore
China’s most-traded DCE January iron ore contract closed marginally higher at 763 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Spot prices for PB fines in Shandong and Hebei held steady, reflecting a balanced physical market.
Shipments totalled 33.49 million tonnes last week, down 3.9% from the prior week, while the impact from blast furnace maintenance rose slightly, reducing hot metal output by 1.18 million tonnes.
With macroeconomic sentiment quiet and steel demand stable, iron ore prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term, supported by resilient spot fundamentals.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h41 GMT – $103.65/mt, Up +0.73%
Copper (LME)
Copper extended gains today, buoyed by China’s latest pro-growth measures and optimism around the imminent reopening of the U.S. government. The LME 3-month copper price edged higher to $10,950 per tonne, maintaining strong year-to-date momentum after reaching a record $11,200 in late October. Beijing reaffirmed its commitment to “appropriately loose” monetary conditions, complementing fresh initiatives to attract private investment into infrastructure. Supply constraints also lent support, with Codelco’s September output down 7% year-on-year.
Market participants expect copper to remain well supported as global infrastructure and electrification demand underpin long-term fundamentals.
LME 3-month copper at 16h40 GMT – $10,815.50/mt, Up +0.26%
Overall, commodity markets showed a steady start to the week—energy prices steadied on policy optimism, base metals reflected China’s supportive stance, and bulk commodities traded within familiar ranges. With key OPEC and IEA reports due mid-week, traders are likely to stay watchful for fresh directional cues.
