10th November 2025
Commodity markets started the week on a subdued note as traders weighed mixed macro signals, including hopes for a U.S. government reopening, mild weather in Europe, and continued uncertainty in global supply chains. Energy markets traded unevenly, while metals showed cautious stability amid shifting sentiment.
Coal
Front-month API2 coal prices eased to $96/mt, down around $0.75 on the day, while API4 fell nearly $1 to $86/mt amid softer demand. In contrast, Newcastle coal strengthened to about $110.45/mt, its highest level in over two months, supported by a firm demand outlook. However, sentiment remained cautious as October import data showed declines across the top four coal importers—China, India, Japan, and South Korea—reflecting the lag between higher prices and physical deliveries. China reaffirmed its long-term reliance on coal, targeting peak demand by 2030 and delaying earlier phaseout plans, a trend echoed by other Asian and European economies balancing energy security with rising power demand. In India, weaker power-sector demand has weighed on production, with Coal India output at 385.5 million tonnes from April to October 2025, down 4.5% year-on-year.
Brent Crude
Crude oil prices edged higher early Monday but reversed gains later in the session as optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown faded. Brent settled near $63.20/bbl, supported briefly by hopes that a government reopening could lift fuel demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. However, concerns over rising global supply and swelling U.S. inventories capped advances. Floating storage in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks as Western sanctions restrict Russian exports to China and India. Meanwhile, Lukoil faces growing operational uncertainty as a U.S. deadline to end business with the Russian firm approaches on November 21, following the collapse of a proposed sale to Gunvor.
Spot Brent at 17h05 GMT – $63.55/bll, Down -0.14%
European LNG
European gas futures fell below €31/MWh, hovering near six-month lows amid mild, windy weather and steady LNG inflows. Strong pipeline deliveries from Norway and ample arrivals from the U.S. and Middle East continue to balance the seasonal shift. LNG imports into Europe rose 16.8 million tons year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, while North Asian prices also declined as warm weather in China freed up cargoes for Europe. EU storage stands at 82.6%, around 10 percentage points below last year but improving week-on-week. Weather forecasts suggest temperatures will normalise later this week, though new Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure could increase Ukraine’s reliance on European gas through winter.
Spot Dutch TTF at 17h07 GMT – €30.97/MWh, Down -0.72%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded narrowly lower before rebounding slightly in late trade. The Dalian I2601 contract closed at 765 yuan, down 0.07%. Spot prices rose modestly, with PB fines in Shandong and Hebei up 2–5 yuan/mt. Global shipments fell 3.9% week-on-week, but Chinese arrivals rose 1.6%, adding to supply pressure. While demand remains subdued, stable hot metal output is providing near-term support. With most blast furnace maintenance expected later in November, production should hold steady for now. Prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term, with limited downside as sentiment stabilises.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h19 GMT – $102.90/mt, Down -0.34%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices edged higher as optimism grew that a U.S. government deal could end the prolonged shutdown, improving the demand outlook. However, gains were capped by uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Traders reported renewed premiums for U.S.-bound shipments, signalling a return of tariff-related trade flows that lifted prices earlier this year. In China, trading sentiment improved, with tight high-grade supply supporting premiums of 100–130 yuan/mt for Jinchuan material. Shanghai warehouses saw moderate destocking late last week as downstream buyers restocked following recent price dips. Spot premiums against the SHFE 2411 contract are expected to hover around parity this week amid resistance to higher prices.
LME 3-month copper at 17h02 GMT – $10,802.50/mt, Up +0.80%
Lead
LME lead rose modestly, settling at $2,045/mt, up 0.42%, as both primary and secondary smelters resumed production following maintenance. On the SHFE, the most-traded 2511 contract closed at 17,470 yuan/mt, up 0.29%. Domestic supply and demand both increased, keeping prices firm despite a low inventory base. With SHFE delivery week approaching, some invisible inventories are expected to enter visible stock, and traders remain cautious of a potential price pullback after recent gains.
LME 3-month lead at 17h01 GMT – $2,058.50/mt, Up +0.56%
Overall, markets reflected a tone of hesitation, with energy prices constrained by oversupply concerns and metals holding steady on selective buying interest. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. and Chinese economic data for clearer direction on demand momentum heading into mid-November.
