21st October 2025
Commodity markets traded unevenly today, with mixed movements across the energy complex. Coal prices remained volatile, European gas found support, and oil markets held broadly steady as traders weighed shifting fundamentals and regional supply trends.
Coal
Coal prices remained volatile today, weakening early in the session with API2 down about USD 1 before recovering later in the day. European gas prices also found support, with near-term contracts rising nearly 2%. In the physical market, Newcastle November-loading cargoes traded around USD 0.50 below last week’s levels, adding mild downward pressure to NEWC swaps, which ultimately closed close to unchanged.
Brent Crude
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive session as concerns over oversupply and weakening demand, driven by renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, continued to pressure the market. Both Brent and WTI are now in contango, with near-term contracts trading below later deliveries—typically signalling abundant supply and softer demand. Prices hit their lowest levels since early May, as OPEC+ proceeds with planned output increases despite slowing global growth. Analysts now expect the market to move into surplus through the remainder of this year and into 2026.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $61.31/bll, up 0.49%
European LNG
EU energy ministers voted overwhelmingly in favour of a draft regulation to restrict imports of Russian natural gas and LNG, marking another key step in the bloc’s REPowerEU strategy to phase out dependence on Russian energy. The legislation, approved at a meeting in Luxembourg, follows repeated supply disruptions and price volatility attributed to Moscow’s “weaponisation” of energy exports. The measure will apply to both pipeline and LNG imports, signalling Europe’s continued effort to diversify energy sources and strengthen energy security.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €32.15, up 1.32%
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices were steady, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY 769.5/mt, up 0.13% from the prior session. Spot port transactions were subdued, though prices for PB fines in Hebei ranged between CNY 784–789/mt and in Shandong between CNY 772–778/mt. Steel mill profitability continued to narrow, prompting increased maintenance activity and production cuts, which weakened demand. On the supply side, shipments and port arrivals rose notably this week, keeping supply conditions comfortable. With fundamental support easing, prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, influenced by ongoing policy meetings and market sentiment.
Spot SGX 62% iron ore at 15h45 BST – $105.15/mt, no change
Copper (LME)
Copper prices edged lower, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and sluggish Chinese demand, though falling LME inventories limited losses. Traders are closely watching developments ahead of next week’s high-level U.S.–China summit in South Korea. Economic data showing China’s GDP growth slowing to a one-year low dampened sentiment in the industrial metals market. However, LME data showed available warehouse stocks declined to 127,350 tons, the lowest since July, after 2,000 tons were cancelled in South Korea—providing mild support.
LME 3-month copper at 16h25 BST – $10,611/mt, down 0.81%
The session ended with coal recovering from early weakness, gas prices firming on stronger short-term demand, and oil steadying amid subdued sentiment. Overall, markets reflected a cautious balance between supply adjustments and lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.
