22nd October 2025
Commodity markets traded firmer today, led by continued strength in coal and renewed buying interest across the energy complex. Oil recovered further, while gas softened, reflecting diverging fundamentals across major fuel markets.
Coal
Coal prices extended yesterday’s rally, with API2 leading gains despite softer European gas prices. Oil remained volatile, with front-month Brent crude ending the day more than 2% higher. The physical Newcastle market was broadly stable, though firmer Chinese domestic prices added underlying support and lent a bullish tone to NEWC swaps.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive session, gaining over 2% as optimism grew over progress toward a U.S. trade agreement with India and China. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to scale back Russian oil imports, while discussions on a trade deal that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 15–16% appeared to advance. Supply concerns also re-emerged after the planned Trump–Putin summit was postponed, and as Western nations continued urging Asian buyers to reduce Russian crude purchases. Expectations of a decline in U.S. oil inventories further supported the move higher.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $62.43/bll, up 1.81%
European LNG
European gas markets were steady as the European Parliament agreed to review corporate sustainability regulations following pressure from the U.S. and Qatar. Both nations have urged the EU to dilute the rules’ reach beyond Europe, reduce penalties for non-compliance, and soften climate-related obligations. The EU, which now sources roughly 45% of its LNG from the U.S., continues to expand transatlantic imports to replace Russian supply. Meanwhile, updated weather forecasts showing unseasonably mild and windy conditions across northern Europe have lowered regional power prices and dampened short-term gas demand expectations, prompting traders to recalibrate winter energy risk exposure.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €31.72/MWh, down 1.58%
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices firmed, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY 774, up 0.65%. Spot cargoes at major ports increased by CNY 2–3, though trading activity remained light. Mills continued to purchase only as needed, while traders maintained moderate selling interest. Blast furnace operations and maintenance levels were largely stable, keeping hot metal production steady. Market sentiment was also supported by expectations of a potential U.S. interest rate cut and optimism surrounding ongoing domestic policy meetings in China, with near-term ore prices likely to remain rangebound.
Spot SGX 62% iron ore at 16h00 BST – $105.10/mt, down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices were steady as traders weighed trade uncertainty against tightening physical supply. Despite lingering macro headwinds, the metal has climbed more than 20% this year, supported by strong investor positioning and recurring disruptions at major mines. Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia—responsible for about 4% of global production—has added to a growing list of supply interruptions. The Federal Reserve’s shift toward monetary easing has also provided underlying support, helping offset weaker industrial demand linked to global trade frictions.
LME 3-month copper at 17h00 BST – $10,657.50/mt – 0.39%
The session closed with a cautiously optimistic tone. Coal and oil extended their rebound, supported by steadier physical markets and improved sentiment, while gas remained subdued, leaving overall energy market direction mixed but stabilising after recent volatility.
