26th September 2025
_Commodity markets traded mixed today, with oil steady on supply risks, gas anchored by ample inventories, iron ore sliding on weaker demand, and copper volatile on tightening supply conditions._
*Coal*
API2 price action was subdued, with early weakness giving way to a recovery that left contracts near unchanged by the close. European gas followed a similar path, also ending the day flat. In contrast, the physical Newcastle market saw stronger bids, which provided support for Newcastle swaps—particularly at the shorter end of the curve, where gains were most evident.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices held steady, set for a weekly gain of more than 4% as Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure prompted Moscow to tighten fuel export restrictions. Russia will maintain its ban on gasoline exports and impose a partial ban on diesel until year-end, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed. The resulting loss of refining capacity has triggered fuel shortages across several Russian regions. NATO’s warnings over Russian airspace incursions have heightened the geopolitical risk premium, with analysts warning of potential new sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector. Offsetting some of the upside, Iraqi Kurdish crude exports to Turkey are due to resume this weekend. On the demand side, U.S. GDP growth was revised up to 3.8% annualised in Q2, underlining a firm economic backdrop.
_Spot Brent at 17h00 BST – $70.51, up 1.59%_
*European LNG*
European gas futures hovered near €32/MWh, supported by robust storage and healthy LNG supply. Wind output remains strong and temperatures above seasonal norms, though forecasts point to cooler conditions and weaker renewable generation ahead. The EU’s proposed sanctions package includes a full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027, though Russian gas continues to flow into Europe. In 2024, Europe imported about 52 bcm of Russian gas—31.6 bcm via pipelines and 20 bcm as LNG—making Russia the bloc’s second-largest supplier behind Norway. Despite political pressure, EU LNG imports from Russia actually rose 14% last year, underscoring the complexities of reducing dependence.
_TTF Gas at 17h00 BST – €32.55/MWh, up 0.30%_
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures ended the week lower, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 790, down 1.74% WoW. Selling pressure was moderate, but steel mills largely adopted a wait-and-see approach. Inventories at 35 major ports fell by 540,000 mt WoW, while daily average port pick-ups rose by 102,000 mt to 3.215 mt, reflecting pre-holiday restocking. With most mills now adequately stocked ahead of the National Day holiday, demand support has waned. Risk-averse sentiment before the holiday break added to the afternoon sell-off, leaving iron ore prices vulnerable to further fluctuations next week.
_SGX 62% Fe at 16h17 BST – $105.35/mt, up 0.10%_
*Copper (LME)*
Copper markets remain fragile amid supply disruptions. Prices briefly surged nearly 5% earlier this week after Freeport declared force majeure at Grasberg following a fatal accident, halting output and cutting Indonesian supply by 32% YTD. While global mine production rose 3.4% in the first seven months of the year—driven by growth in Chile, Peru, and the DRC—Indonesia’s losses highlight ongoing vulnerability. Refined metal production climbed 3.9% YoY, but smelter margins remain tight, prompting Chinese producers to call for curbs on capacity expansion. With supply risks mounting and inventories thin, copper remains prone to volatility.
_LME 3 month copper at 16h57 BST – $10186/mt, down 0.68% _
_Energy markets remain dominated by supply-side risks, with Russian export restrictions supporting oil and EU sanctions shaping the gas outlook. Iron ore came under pressure as restocking slowed, while copper’s outlook tightened on Grasberg disruptions despite broader supply growth. Volatility across commodities is set to persist as geopolitics and production dynamics continue to shape market sentiment.
