25th September 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed today, with oil and copper supported by supply disruptions, coal gaining alongside stronger gas, and iron ore steady at elevated levels.
Coal
Coal prices found modest support as European gas strengthened, with shorter-dated contracts rising close to 2%. The physical Newcastle market was steady but slightly better offered than yesterday, giving little clear direction. Even so, Newcastle swaps edged higher, with API2 also lifted by the firmer gas complex.
Brent Crude
Brent futures slipped back below $68/bbl as investors took profits after a rally to a seven-week high. Earlier gains had been driven by a surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories and intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy assets, which raised fears of export curbs. Support also came from the ongoing suspension of Kurdish exports and NATO’s warning of a “robust response” to Russian incursions. Still, with peak demand season fading, oversupply concerns re-emerged, particularly as Iraq resumed Kurdish supplies.
Spot Brent at 16h55 BST – $68.36/bbl, down 0.15%
European LNG
Gas futures rose more than 1.5%, supported by the EU’s proposal for a full ban on Russian LNG imports from 2027. The U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to boost LNG exports to Europe, with capacity expansions planned in the coming years. Analysts noted the impact on global balances would be limited, as Russian LNG would likely be redirected. Russian LNG currently accounts for nearly 20% of EU imports. European storage is now 82% full, holding more than 90 bcm ahead of winter.
TTF Gas at 17h00 BST – €32.52/MWh, up 1.65%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures closed firmer after a soft open, with the most-traded I2601 contract finishing at CNY805.5, up 0.25%. Rebar demand has now risen for two consecutive weeks while inventories declined, reinforcing confidence in steel consumption. Seasonal demand has supported ferrous prices, though with pre-holiday stockpiling largely complete, near-term upside remains limited.
SGX 62% Fe iron ore at 15h16 BST – $105.50/mt, down 0.09%
Copper (LME)
Copper held firm after Freeport-McMoRan warned it may not meet contract obligations following the fatal accident at Grasberg, prompting cuts to quarterly copper and gold output guidance. Smelters reliant on Grasberg feedstock are already facing higher costs, and the disruption is expected to add pressure across the supply chain. Analysts see a 300,000-tonne refined copper deficit this year, with prices potentially climbing toward $13,000–$15,000/t if shortages intensify. With inventories thin, markets remain on alert for further volatility.
LME 3-month copper at 16h49 BST – $10,252/mt, up 0.77%
Energy and metals markets remain shaped by supply risks and shifting fundamentals. Oil and copper were supported by disruption concerns, coal tracked firmer gas, while iron ore consolidated as trading slowed. With inventories, sanctions, and supply-side setbacks in focus, volatility across commodities looks set to remain high.
