24th September 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed today, with oil and copper rallying on supply disruptions, coal extending its decline, European gas edging lower, and iron ore holding broadly steady.
Coal
Coal swaps fell further, with Newcastle leading declines as softer bids in the physical market weighed on sentiment. European gas prices edged lower but held broadly stable compared with recent weeks, underpinned by strong inventories and consistent supply. Oil continued to outperform, with front-month Brent crude gaining another 2% on the back of lower-than-expected U.S. inventory data and heightened geopolitical risks that reinforced supply concerns.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose after President Trump said Ukraine could reclaim all of its territory, fuelling geopolitical risk premiums. Brent gained about 1% as Ukraine’s military reported strikes on two oil pumping stations in Russia’s Volgograd region. A state of emergency was declared in Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea hub for Russian oil and grain exports, after an attack by Ukrainian drones hit a hotel and left at least two dead and seven injured, including a child. Additional support came from industry data showing a decline in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing concerns over tightening supplies amid ongoing export disruptions in Kurdistan, Venezuela, and Russia.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $68.13/bll, up 0.71%
European LNG
European gas futures slipped by more than 1%, pressured by strong inventories and steady LNG arrivals. Wind output remained high and temperatures above seasonal norms, though forecasts now suggest cooler conditions with lower wind generation ahead. EU storage stands at 81.6%, with Germany at 76.4%, France at 90.6% and Italy at 91%. As part of its latest sanctions package, the EU has proposed a full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027, while the U.S. has reiterated its commitment to expand LNG export capacity to Europe in the years ahead.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h32 BST – €31.86/MWh, down 1.26%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures fluctuated through the day before closing flat, with the most-traded I2601 contract ending at 803.5. Some restocking by mills was observed, though overall enquiries were softer. Blast furnace operating rates at 242 mills reached 87.05%, up 0.67 points MoM, as previously idled Hebei furnaces returned to production. Attention is turning to potential environmental restrictions at month-end. High hot metal output continues to lend support, though most mills have already completed pre-holiday stockpiling, suggesting prices may remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.
Spot 62% Fe iron ore on SGX at 16h16 BST, $105.70/mt, Unchanged
Copper (LME)
Copper prices surged over 3% after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on supplies from Grasberg in Indonesia following a fatal accident that halted production at the world’s second-largest copper mine. The incident released 800,000 mt of wet material through multiple levels, killing two workers and leaving five unaccounted for. In Peru, Hudbay Minerals also suspended milling operations at Constancia due to protests, adding to supply concerns. Market sentiment in China was subdued, with weak trading activity and limited downstream restocking, though global disruptions dominated price direction.
LME 3-month copper at 16h26 BST – $10330/mt, up 3.37%
Energy and metals markets remain driven by a combination of supply shocks and geopolitical risks. Oil and copper gained on tightening supply signals, while coal weakened and gas and iron ore consolidated. With inventories, sanctions, and production trends in focus, volatility is likely to persist across the complex.
