23rd September 2025
Commodities traded with mixed direction today. Energy markets found support from oil and gas strength, though coal remained under pressure, while metals were steady to weaker on shifting fundamentals.
Coal
Coal prices extended their decline in early trade, with physical Newcastle slightly better offered and both API2 and Newcastle swaps down about $0.50. Firmer energy markets elsewhere helped limit the downside, as front-month Brent crude rose nearly 2% and European gas strengthened. The rebound in related markets lent bullishness to API2 swaps, which fed through to medium- and longer-dated Newcastle contracts, offsetting some of the weakness at the front of the curve.
Brent Crude
Oil prices firmed after talks to resume exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan stalled, easing fears of fresh supply. The agreement between Iraq’s federal and Kurdish regional governments, designed to restart around 230,000 bpd of exports via Turkey, was delayed after producing firms demanded assurances over repayment of debts. Flows have been halted since March 2023. Broader sentiment in crude remains cautious, with markets bracing for elevated supply and slowing demand amid rising EV adoption and the impact of U.S. tariffs on global growth.
Spot Brent at 16h35 BST – $67.88/bll, up 1.97%
European LNG
European natural gas futures hovered around €32/MWh, supported by ample storage and LNG inflows. Wind generation and above-seasonal temperatures have kept demand muted, though forecasts now point to cooler conditions and lower wind output. EU storage stands at 81.6%, with Germany at 76.4%, France at 90.6% and Italy at 91%. The EU has proposed a full ban on Russian LNG imports from 1 January 2027, while the U.S. reiterated plans to expand LNG export capacity to Europe. Meanwhile, Norway confirmed preparations for its 26th oil and gas licensing round to stem future declines in production. Having overtaken Russia as Europe’s top supplier in 2022, Norway remains a key energy partner for the region.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h35 BST – €32.29/MWh, up 1.41%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures eased, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 802.5, down 1.23% WoW after a weaker session. Blast furnace maintenance reduced hot metal output by 93,700 mt WoW to 1.0533m mt, though production still rose slightly overall, offering limited support. With fewer macro developments influencing sentiment, iron ore prices consolidated, leaving the market rangebound. Short-term fundamentals remain supportive, suggesting prices are likely to hold steady after adjustment.
Spot 62% Fe iron ore on SGX at 15h50 BST – $105.55/mt, down 0.14%
Copper (LME)
LME copper traded cautiously as Chinese smelters face mounting pressures. Sulphuric acid prices, a key byproduct, have fallen sharply from earlier highs, eroding revenues. Combined with negative spot treatment charges, elevated raw material costs, and expectations of lower refined output, smelter operating rates are set to deteriorate, according to SMM Information & Technology. China’s smelters, responsible for over half of global output, produced at record levels in the first half of the year, increasing strain on margins and weighing on international market sentiment.
LME 3-month copper at16h33 BST – $9980/mt, up 0.14%
Energy markets showed diverging trends, with coal still weighed down by physical offers while oil and gas lent support further along the curve. Metals remain constrained by fragile fundamentals and high costs. With policy shifts and supply chain developments still in focus, commodity markets are likely to remain cautious and volatile in the near term.
