22nd September 2025
Commodity markets opened the week on a softer note, with coal and gas extending recent declines while sentiment across the broader energy complex remained cautious.
Coal
Coal prices weakened slightly again after Friday’s losses, with API2 pressured by the continued drift lower in European gas prices. Physical Newcastle activity showed marginally firmer bids, but this failed to translate into meaningful support for Newcastle swaps, which remained under pressure.
Brent Crude
Brent crude futures eased as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East were countered by oversupply concerns. Estonia reported Russian fighter jets entering its airspace, while several Western nations recognised a Palestinian state, but neither development disrupted oil flows. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has raised exports under the OPEC+ agreement, with September shipments expected at 3.4–3.45 million bpd. Baghdad has also given preliminary approval to resume pipeline exports from Kurdistan through Turkey, according to Reuters.
Spot Brent at17h04 BST – $66.52/bll, down 0.25%
European LNG
European gas futures hovered around €32/MWh, underpinned by robust inventories and continued LNG inflows. Wind output has remained strong and temperatures above seasonal norms, though forecasts now point to cooler weather and weaker wind generation. EU storage stands at 81.6%, with Germany at 76.4%, France at 90.6% and Italy at 91%. As part of its new sanctions package, the EU has proposed a full ban on Russian LNG imports from 1 January 2027, while the U.S. reiterated its commitment to expand LNG exports to Europe with additional capacity in coming years.
Dutch TTF Gas at 17h04 BST – €31.90/MWh, down 1.25%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures held firm, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 808.5, up 0.37% on the day despite a weaker intraday trend. Global shipments rose to 37.66m mt last week, up 11.6% WoW, led by rebounds from Australia and Brazil, while non-mainstream flows fell. Chinese arrivals declined 8% WoW to 23.96m mt, keeping short-term supply pressure limited. With steel mills in the final stage of pre-holiday restocking, demand continues to support prices. Market expectations for policy easing also reinforced sentiment, leaving iron ore rangebound but with a firm bias in the near term.
Spot 62% Fe iron ore on SGX at 16h14 BST – $105.60/mt, down 0.14%
*Copper (LME) *
Copper prices edged higher in early trade on renewed supply concerns and steady Chinese demand. Three-month copper on the LME rose 0.6% to $9,996.50/t. Market focus remains on Chile’s El Teniente mine, where a July tunnel collapse has delayed a full restart. Codelco confirmed that returning to capacity will take longer than expected, with a projected 33,000-ton shortfall this year. Despite these disruptions, Chile maintains output targets, aiming to lift production to a record 6m tons by 2027, supported by recovery at other mines and new capacity from Teck Resources.
LME 3-month copper at 17h00 BST – $9977/mt, down 0.13%
Energy markets remain on the defensive as easing gas prices weigh on coal benchmarks and physical strength proves insufficient to shift paper sentiment. With macro uncertainty still looming, traders are likely to stay cautious until clearer signals emerge on demand and supply fundamentals.
