19th September 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed today, with oil weighed by demand concerns, gas slipping on strong inflows, iron ore supported by Chinese stockpiling, copper steady on pre-holiday restocking, and chrome ore holding firm on limited activity.
Coal
The recent rally across coal was checked today as prices drifted lower, with API2 down the most. Softer European gas and crude oil prices added to the weaker sentiment, with front-month gas falling around 2% and oil slipping just over 1%. In contrast, the physical Newcastle market remained firmer, with a November 2025 cargo reported trading $2 higher than yesterday’s level, underscoring ongoing support on the physical side despite pressure on swaps.
Brent Crude
Brent crude slipped but remained on track for a modest weekly gain. A firmer U.S. dollar and uncertainty over Western sanctions on Russia pressured sentiment, with prices falling 0.2% in early trade to $67.28/bbl. Since early August, Brent has remained stuck in a narrow range as bearish fundamentals offset geopolitical risks. OPEC+’s accelerated output return and signs of oversupply in U.S. product inventories continue to weigh, with distillate stocks rising by 4 million barrels last week. Demand-side concerns also persist, with the EIA and other agencies flagging weakening consumption trends. Still, the market remains wary of potential Russian supply disruptions after recent Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and calls from President Trump for NATO allies to halt Russian oil purchases.
Spot Brent at 16h53 BST – $66.76/bll, down 1.04%
European LNG
European natural gas futures slipped over 1% as mild, windy weather and steady LNG inflows kept demand muted. EU storage levels stand at 80.4%, well below last year’s 93.2%, with Germany at 75.1%, France at 89.9%, and Italy at 90.1%. Planned maintenance at Germany’s Emden terminal, due to begin Thursday, could temporarily tighten supply. The EU is also moving to accelerate its phaseout of Russian LNG imports, potentially ending reliance before the original 2027 deadline. Meanwhile, Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project continues to deliver cargoes to China, while President Trump reiterated warnings that fresh sanctions could follow if NATO allies align with U.S. measures.
Dutch TTF Gas at 16h50 BST – €32.29/MWh, down 1.98%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures held firm, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY807.5, up 0.81% WoW. Port inventories across 35 Chinese hubs fell 500,000 mt WoW to 129.91 million mt, while daily average port pick-up volumes rose by 63,000 mt to 3.113 million mt. Steel mills continued active stockpiling ahead of the National Day holiday, boosting sentiment. Market confidence was further supported by positive signals from ongoing China–U.S. talks. Looking ahead, ore prices are expected to remain firm into next week, though gains may be capped by environmental production curbs and anti-involution policies.
Spot 62% Fe iron ore on SGX at 15h31 BST – $105.90/mt, up 0.14%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices firmed as Chinese buyers stepped up restocking ahead of the week-long National Day holiday. Benchmark three-month copper fell 2% from Monday’s 15-month high of $10,192.50/t, as traders took profits following Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Still, signs of improving Chinese demand provided support, with the Yangshan copper premium rising 1.8% to $57/t. Restocking activity ahead of the October holiday is expected to underpin demand, though overall market activity typically slows during the break.
LME 3-month copper at 16h50 BST – $9985.50/mt, up 0.43%
Chrome Ore
Chrome ore spot activity remained muted, with ferrochrome producers drawing down earlier stockpiles. Selective restocking was seen after the arrival of lower-priced cargoes near $265/mt, but overall demand stayed subdued. South African concentrate suppliers held firmer price resistance amid tighter supply, while Zimbabwean concentrates saw weaker demand and limited transactions. In CFR China, South African 40–42% fines in Tianjin edged up to $280/mt, with deals concentrated in the $280–284/mt range on volumes of 5,000–30,000 mt. Miners maintained a strong willingness to sell, though slowing momentum suggested limited scope for near-term gains.
40–42% South African fines: $280–284/mt (up $1 MoM)
48–50% Zimbabwean concentrate: $345–355/mt (up $2.5 MoM)
Lead
Spot market activity during the week of 15–19 September saw narrowing discounts as supply accumulation eased and downstream enterprises stepped up stockpiling ahead of the holiday, driving smelter inventories lower. In Henan, smelters focused on fulfilling long-term contracts following delivery, tightening spot supply. Discounts against SMM #1 lead narrowed to near parity, with some suppliers offering 100–120 yuan/mt below the SHFE 2510 contract. In Hunan, branded smelters initially sold at discounts of 50–30 yuan/mt, but as lead prices rose and inventories declined toward the weekend, discounts tightened to parity, with some smelters even holding back sales at premiums. Premiums in Guangdong also firmed. Secondary refined lead smelters showed greater willingness to sell as prices strengthened, though ongoing maintenance kept overall supply constrained. Downstream buyers prioritised primary lead purchases, with secondary refined lead continuing to play only a supplementary role.
Lead Ingot (B/L) Premium, CIF Shanghai $110/mt
With oil and gas pressured by macro headwinds, iron ore and copper drew support from Chinese stockpiling and restocking ahead of the holiday. Chrome ore held steady on thin activity and tight supply. Markets now turn to the weeks ahead for clarity on U.S. monetary policy, European energy sanctions, and Chinese demand trends.
