29th September 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed today, with oil slipping on supply concerns, gas extending its drift lower, iron ore subdued ahead of the holiday period, and copper rallying on tight supply. Chrome and lead markets remained steady with limited activity.
Coal
Coal swaps traded quietly, with Newcastle showing slight support even as the physical market attracted marginally better offers. By contrast, cross-commodity moves were more volatile. European gas contracts slipped around 2% on the shorter end, while front-month Brent crude dropped more than 3% amid signs that OPEC+ may move ahead with another output increase.
Brent Crude
Brent crude slipped 2% as the market refocused on looming supply increases from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and the potential for more OPEC+ barrels ahead of the group’s October 5 meeting. Iraq resumed pipeline exports from Kurdistan to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast after a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, restoring flows of around 230,000 bpd. The resumption of Kurdish exports, combined with expectations of OPEC+ maintaining production hikes, weighed on prices and briefly pushed Brent back below the $70 mark.
Spot Brent at 16h30 BST – $67.05/bll, down 3.19%
European LNG
European gas futures traded 1.5% lower, extending their slide to more than 40% below February’s highs, with volatility now back to pre-2022 levels. Ample storage—currently 82.3% full across the EU, with France and Italy above 90% and Germany at 76.6%—and reduced Asian demand continue to ease supply pressures. LNG cargoes redirected from Asia supported European balances, while forecasts for cooler weather and ongoing NATO-Russia tensions limited further downside. Looking longer term, global liquefaction capacity is projected to expand by 60% by 2030, half from the U.S., raising concerns that supply growth will outpace demand in both Europe and Asia.
TTF Gas at 16h30 BST – €32.52/MWh, down 1.81%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures drifted lower, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at CNY784, down 1.57% on the day. Mills have largely completed pre-holiday restocking and are cautious on fresh purchases, leaving market sentiment muted. Global shipments last week fell 4.1% WoW to 36.1 mt, led by lower flows from Australia and Brazil, though non-mainstream suppliers increased exports slightly. Risk aversion before China’s National Day holiday curbed activity, with open interest declining and price action expected to remain rangebound in the short term.
SGX 62% Fe at 16h24 BST – $103.40/mt, down 1.80%
Copper (LME)
Copper rallied more than 2.5% as disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine tightened supply. Freeport-McMoRan warned that 2026 output could fall 35% below prior forecasts, with Grasberg’s 2025 production now expected at 488,000 mt, down from an earlier estimate of 750,000 mt. The disruption impacts both concentrate supply and smelter demand at Gresik and Manyar, while sharply lower treatment and refining charges highlight raw material shortages. Despite strong global mine output growth of 3.4% so far this year—driven by Chile, Peru, and the DRC—Indonesian losses underscore the fragility of supply.
LME 3-month copper at 16h00 BST – $10,390/mt, up 2.07%
Chrome Ore
The chrome ore market was steady, with trading muted as most ferrochrome producers have already secured raw materials. Port inventories remain high, pressuring some traders to trim offers, though many held firm in anticipation of post-holiday buying. South African producers lifted offers on 26th September, with one major mine raising its price by $2 to $282/mt CIF China. August imports hit a record 2.099 mt, fuelling concerns of oversupply. While transaction volumes were modest, high ferrochrome production plans continue to underpin demand.
South African Cr2O3 40–42%: $282/mt CIF China
South African Cr2O3 38% lump: $252.50/mt CIF China
Zimbabwe Cr2O3 46–48%: $330/mt CIF China
Lead
Lead prices were steady as downstream buyers in China completed pre-holiday stockpiling. Social inventories across five major regions fell to 42,100 mt, down 12,700 mt from a week earlier. The SHFE 2511 contract closed marginally lower at CNY17,075/mt, with open interest down by 1,399 lots as trading activity thinned before the break.
LME 3-month lead at 16h00 BST – $1,997/mt, down 0.25%
Markets remain pulled between supply shocks and signs of easing demand. Brent lost ground on returning Kurdish barrels, European gas eased with strong storage, and iron ore drifted as mills stepped back. Copper was the standout, surging on Grasberg disruptions, while chrome and lead markets stayed steady. With OPEC+, sanctions, and holiday demand cycles ahead, volatility is likely to remain elevated into October.
