20th August 2025
Global commodity markets remain headline-driven, with traders weighing geopolitical signals from Washington and Moscow alongside shifting supply fundamentals. Optimism over possible progress in U.S.-brokered Russia–Ukraine talks is shaping sentiment across energy, while industrial metals continue to look for macro direction ahead of this week’s key policy cues.
Coal
Coal prices extended their upward momentum, with API2 swaps gaining around $1 on the day. In contrast, activity in NEWC swaps was quieter, with limited price movement and subdued trading volumes. Broader energy market strength provided additional support, as European gas prices rose nearly 3% and Brent crude gained close to 2%. In the physical market, DES ARA and Newcastle saw improved bidding interest, reinforcing sentiment in the swaps complex.
Brent Crude
Oil found support after severe flooding disrupted operations at BP’s 440,000 bpd refinery in Whiting, Indiana, a major fuel producer for the U.S. Midwest. The outage raised concerns over regional fuel supply but could also temporarily weigh on crude demand at the plant. Adding to the backdrop, industry data showed a 2.4 million-barrel draw in U.S. inventories, exceeding forecasts for a 1.2 million-barrel decline and pointing to stronger demand. At the same time, traders weighed prospects of a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, with U.S. President Trump signalling he was working to arrange direct talks between Putin and Zelenskiy, possibly followed by a trilateral summit.
Spot Brent at 17h08 BST – $66.88/bll, up 1.66%
European LNG
European gas prices climbed over 3% as hopes for progress toward peace in Ukraine drove speculation that sanctions on Russian energy could eventually ease. The move came despite softer near-term demand from cooler-than-normal temperatures. EU storage levels remain relatively comfortable at 74%, though below last year’s near-90% at the same stage. By country, Germany sits just above 67%, Italy near 86%, and France around 82%.
Dutch TTF Gas at 17h08 BST – €32.20/MWh, up 3.11%
Iron Ore
The iron ore market remained subdued as traders adopted a cautious stance amid weak steel mill orders and limited fresh buying. In Hebei, several mines and beneficiation plants have received notices to suspend or restrict production, tightening local supply. As a result, producers holding inventory grew more bullish and withheld sales, slowing market activity. Local authorities are also considering restrictions on explosives, which could constrain concentrate supply further. In the short term, this is expected to lend some support to prices, with room for modest upside in local concentrates.
Spot TSI 62% iron ore futures at 17h10 BST – $101.90/mt, up 0.89%
Copper (LME)
Copper markets traded sideways as investors awaited fresh macro direction. Focus is now on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, where confirmation of an expected 25bp U.S. rate cut could weaken the dollar and boost demand for dollar-priced metals. On the supply side, increased copper arrivals into the U.S. have lifted inventories, easing concerns over near-term tightness. With ample stockpiles and relatively loose supply conditions, coupled with only a mild recovery in demand, the market currently lacks clear drivers, keeping price action largely rangebound.
LME 3 month copper at 17h05 BST – $9724/mt, up 0.36%
Overall, markets remain in a holding pattern, balancing hopes of peace-driven supply shifts against evidence of softer demand in several sectors. With energy sensitive to both geopolitical risk and supply disruptions, and metals awaiting clarity from central banks, traders are positioning cautiously as the week unfolds.
