*19th August 2025*
Global commodity markets remain cautious, with traders digesting Monday’s White House talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Hopes of progress toward a ceasefire and potential easing of sanctions on Russian energy dominate sentiment, though markets are also looking ahead to central bank signals later this week.
*Coal*
The rebound in coal prices extended today, with API2 gaining close to $2 across the curve, marking the strongest move in the complex. In contrast, European gas and oil prices edged lower, both down around 0.5%, leaving coal to outperform on the day. Physical markets remained steady, offering little direction to swaps, though sentiment in derivatives stayed constructive.
*Brent Crude*
Oil edged lower as traders assessed the implications of Trump’s pledge to help guarantee Ukraine’s security in a possible peace deal with Russia. While some speculate progress could lead to sanctions relief and higher Russian crude supply, price moves were limited, with analysts suggesting developments are unlikely to materially jolt balances near term.
Spot Brent as of 17h00 BST – $65.77/bll, down 1.26%
*European LNG*
European natural gas futures slipped toward €31/MWh, their weakest since May 2024, amid optimism that renewed peace efforts could eventually ease global LNG competition. Trump urged Putin to prepare for a summit with Zelenskiy, fuelling ceasefire speculation. Adding to bearish sentiment, Equinor restarted production at Hammerfest, Europe’s largest LNG plant, after a brief outage.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas as of 17h00 BST – €31.10/MWh, down 0.54%
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures drifted lower, with the most-traded I2601 contract on DCE closing at CNY 771/t, down 0.64%. Transaction activity was subdued as mills curtailed buying under month-end restrictions. PB fines were steady at CNY 768–771/t in Shandong and CNY 780–785/t in Tangshan. BHP reported its weakest annual profit in five years at $10.16 billion, down 26% YoY, citing weaker Chinese demand. China’s crude steel output fell to a seven-month low of 79.66 Mt in July, down 4% MoM, while property weakness deepened with new home prices down 0.3% in July.
Spot TSI 62% Fe iron ore on SGX as of 17h00 BST – $101.05/mt, down 0.35%
*Copper (LME)*
Copper traded in a tight range as a stronger dollar weighed against seasonal demand hopes in China. Markets are awaiting Thursday’s PMI releases in the U.S. and EU, with weaker prints likely to reinforce demand concerns. Imports into China remained weak due to unfavourable SHFE–LME arbitrage, while domestic output growth kept premiums low. Analysts expect import weakness to persist in the near term.
LME 3-month Copper as of 16h56 BST – $9695.00/mt, down 0.40%
Commodity markets remain headline-driven, with optimism over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine balanced against persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. While downside pressure is evident in gas, iron ore, and copper, traders remain alert to headline risk, particularly in oil and energy markets, where progress—or setbacks—in peace negotiations could swiftly shift price direction.
