18th August 2025
Global commodity markets are trading in a holding pattern, with price action across energy, metals, and bulks dominated by anticipation of the outcome from today’s high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Until clarity emerges, traders are reluctant to take decisive positions, leaving the complex directionless but primed for volatility.
Coal
After a week-long downward trend, coal prices found some moderate support, with benchmark indices ticking higher by roughly $1. The rebound was modest but signalled that selling pressure may be easing after last week’s declines. Broader energy markets also reflected a stabilisation in sentiment: European gas prices steadied following their sharp pullback, as the lack of a concrete ceasefire agreement in the Russia–Ukraine conflict limited further downside. Oil was volatile on the same headlines, though it ultimately settled just slightly firmer. Across the physical markets, trading activity remained steady and relatively stable.
August 2025 Coal Prices as of 16h45 BST
API2 $99.40
API4 $90.15
Brent Crude
Oil markets are treading water ahead of high-stakes geopolitical developments. October Brent crude briefly firmed this morning, touching $66.31/bbl at 10:50 BST, but momentum remains muted as traders await clarity from U.S. President Donald Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later today. The market is weighing two divergent outcomes: the prospect of tighter sanctions that could curb Russian crude flows versus potential steps toward de-escalation that would ease supply risks. Trump has indicated he will push Kyiv toward a rapid settlement following his recent meeting with President Putin, while softening rhetoric on sanctions. Brent is down more than 10% month-to-date, pressured not only by geopolitics but also by demand-side concerns stemming from U.S. tariff policies and a steady build in OPEC+ supply. For traders, headline risk dominates near-term direction, with volatility skewed to the upside should talks break down.
Spot Brent as of 16h30 BST – $66.10/bll, up 0.38%
European LNG
European natural gas futures extended losses, down over 1% intraday and testing their weakest levels since May 2024. The sell-off reflects cautious positioning ahead of Trump’s meeting with Zelenskiy, as markets bet that any breakthrough toward a Russia-Ukraine settlement could eventually revive Russian pipeline flows, easing global LNG competition. Futures had already retreated 4.4% last week, reflecting optimism on longer-term supply relief. That said, the bearish momentum was partially tempered by fresh news of an unplanned outage at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG facility, which injected a measure of supply-side risk. Traders remain focused on Trump’s European consultations with Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, and NATO officials, where any sign of easing sanctions could accelerate downside pressure on LNG benchmarks.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas as of 16h30 BST – €31.05/MWh, up 0.05%
Iron Ore
The iron ore market turned sharply lower, with the most-traded I2601 contract on DCR closing at CNY 775/t, down 2.94% on the day. Softer downstream steel demand continues to weigh, with inventory build-ups intensifying as mills maintain elevated production. Week-on-week, the contract slipped a more modest 0.64%, underscoring a market caught between short-term oversupply and medium-term expectations of steady hot-metal output. On the physical side, PB fines transacted at CNY 770/t in Shandong and CNY 780–785/t in Tangshan, broadly stable from last week despite the futures retreat. Shipment data offered mixed signals: global loadings edged up to 33.45 Mt, with Brazilian flows recovering strongly while Australian exports dipped. Arrivals into China ticked higher to 29.28 Mt, suggesting a balanced supply-demand outlook. Overall, fundamentals point to a market stabilising in a supply-growth and demand-growth equilibrium, though the near-term tone remains bearish.
Spot TSI 62%fe iron ore on SGX as of 16h30 BST- $101.55/mt, down 0.15%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices softened under the dual weight of a firmer U.S. dollar and lingering geopolitical risk. The greenback’s strength—driven by safe-haven flows ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole—raised the cost of dollar-denominated metals for non-U.S. buyers. At the same time, sentiment was cautious ahead of Trump’s scheduled meeting with Zelenskiy, following his Alaska summit with Putin. With Trump signalling compromises will be required from Kyiv, traders are bracing for uncertainty over whether a negotiated outcome would stabilise European demand or prolong geopolitical disruption. Added to this, last week’s data showing China’s factory output slowing to an eight-month low has tempered demand expectations in the world’s top consumer. Until Jackson Hole and U.S.–Ukraine headlines provide direction, copper remains vulnerable to dollar moves, with the broader bias tilted lower.
LME 3 month Copper as of 16h25 BST $9746.50/mt, down 0.29%
For now, commodities are locked in a wait-and-see mode, with the Trump–Zelenskiy talks acting as the key pivot for market direction. A constructive outcome could ease supply concerns and extend recent downside pressure across the complex, while a breakdown risks sparking renewed volatility and upside spikes in energy and metals. Until there is clarity, traders should expect choppy, headline-driven moves rather than trend-defining momentum.
