30th July 2025
*Coal*
After a week-long rally, the coal market finally gave back some ground today. Early losses appeared tied to weakness in gas and oil, driven by renewed hopes of de-escalation in the Russia–Ukraine conflict. However, sentiment shifted after President Trump announced tariffs on Indian imports in response to its continued purchases of Russian exports. The move pushed oil and gas prices higher, but coal swaps failed to follow suit, remaining lower on the day despite the broader energy market rebound.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude prices moved higher as markets reacted to intensifying geopolitical pressure from the U.S. President. Donald Trump on Tuesday sharply shortened his deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, now giving Moscow just 10–12 days—down from the original 50—before imposing secondary sanctions of up to 100% on countries trading Russian oil. In a related move, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports effective August 1 and hinted at further penalties for India’s purchases of Russian weapons and oil. The U.S. also warned China, Russia’s largest oil customer, of sweeping tariffs should it continue its purchases. The growing geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions supported crude. September Brent futures were last up 0.90% at $73.16/bbl as of 16:45 BST.
*European LNG*
European gas futures rebounded, rising above €35/MWh after hitting a 12-week low earlier this week. Supply concerns and renewed geopolitical tension lifted prices. In Norway, output at the Troll gas field has been cut by 5 mcm/day until August 1, and the restart of the Hammerfest LNG terminal has been delayed by three days. Warmer weather across Northwest Europe is also expected to drive up cooling demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. President’s tighter deadline for a ceasefire in Ukraine added to market uncertainty. Dutch TTF gas rose 0.63% to €34.95/MWh by 16:46 BST.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures eased today as traders adjusted positions and mills showed limited buying interest. The DCE’s I2509 contract closed at CNY 789, down 0.44%. Market activity was subdued, with steel producers largely cautious, purchasing only on dips. Policy uncertainty weighed on sentiment after Zhao Minge, President of the China Iron and Steel Association, confirmed ongoing crude steel production controls through 2025, with enforcement likely to begin in H2. Additionally, speculation is building that North China may impose two-week environmental curbs during the 3rd September military parade, potentially limiting short-term demand. On the SGX, August TSI 62% iron ore futures fell 0.25% to $101.15/mt at 16:46 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices slipped to their lowest in over a week, pressured by growing inventories and trade uncertainty. LME copper warehouse stocks surged 51% in the past month to 136,850 tonnes, signalling oversupply. Traders are also on edge over the U.S.’s proposed 50% tariff on refined copper, scheduled for August 1, and uncertainty around its scope. Meanwhile, concerns over a renewed U.S.–China trade war persist, even after both sides agreed on Tuesday to explore an extension to their current 90-day tariff truce. LME 3-month copper fell over 1% to $9,696.50/mt at 16:46 BST.
