29th July 2025
*Coal*
It was a strong session across the European energy complex, with power and gas rising 3–4% as markets caught up with Monday’s oil rally, fuelled by renewed US-Russia sanctions risk. API2 swaps followed suit, with the Q4 2025 contract trading nearly $3 higher at one point before closing just below the intraday high. Newcastle swaps saw steady activity and held mostly flat, though a late lift driven by API2 strength pushed the curve slightly higher into the close.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude rose to $70.70/bbl today—its highest since June—driven by easing trade tensions and renewed pressure from President Trump on Russia over the Ukraine conflict. Over the past four weeks, Brent has gained 5.9%, though it’s still down 9.47% year-on-year. Trump issued a fresh ultimatum, giving Russia “10 or 12 days” to show progress toward ending the war or face sanctions targeting both Russia and buyers of its exports. Markets are also eyeing the upcoming US Fed meeting on 29–30 July, where rates are widely expected to be held steady. As of 15:22 BST, September Brent was up 1.27% at $70.91/bbl.
*European LNG*
European LNG futures surged over 3% today, trading above €34/MWh, as geopolitical tensions escalated following Trump’s shortened deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire deal. Additional bullish momentum came from Qatar, which threatened to halt LNG supplies to the EU unless climate requirements under the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive are dropped. Qatar currently supplies just under 12% of the EU’s LNG imports. Dutch TTF gas was last up 3.5% at €34.05/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Dalian iron ore futures opened lower but closed higher, with the most-traded I2509 contract rising 0.63% to close at 798 yuan/mt amid reduced open interest. Trader selling was active, while mills bought cautiously, with some showing stronger appetite due to better finished product sales. PB fines in Shandong fell 5–10 yuan to 780 yuan/mt, with Tangshan prices similarly lower at 795 yuan/mt. The futures rally was largely sentiment-driven, supported by rising steel prices, though fundamentals remain unchanged. Market volatility may increase ahead of the upcoming Politburo meeting. On SGX, August 62% Fe futures rose 0.88% to $103.45/mt at 15:52 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices were firm in early trading, with LME 3-month contracts reaching $9,801/mt before easing slightly. Markets reacted to comments from Chilean officials seeking an exemption from the impending 50% US copper import tariff. Chile, the largest US copper supplier, is central to ongoing tariff discussions ahead of the 1 August deadline. According to Britannia Global Markets, the Comex–LME spread remains volatile, as markets have yet to fully price in the potential impact of the levy. Uncertainty continues as traders await details on which copper products and origins will be covered. At 15:55 BST, LME 3-month copper was up 0.10% at $9,800.50/mt.
