28th July 2025
*Coal*
Coal markets opened the week on a volatile note. Friday’s $2 rally in prompt API2 was fully reversed in early trading, before recovering on support from stronger gas and oil prices, ultimately ending the day near unchanged. Newcastle swaps were quiet through the morning but saw solid prompt gains in the afternoon on renewed buying interest. Physical markets remained largely stable.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures climbed over 2% on Monday, nearing $70/bbl, buoyed by optimism around a new US-EU trade deal and fresh remarks from President Trump on Ukraine. The framework pact includes a 15% US tariff on most EU goods and a pledge—though lacking detail—for the EU to purchase $750 billion in US energy. Trump also signalled impatience with Russia, suggesting the 50-day ceasefire deadline may be shortened and warning of 100% tariffs if no truce is reached. Despite the rally, longer-term supply concerns persist. As of 15:45 BST, September Brent was up 1.96% at $69.78/bbl.
*European LNG*
European gas futures were trading near €33/MWh as storage levels surpassed 65%, keeping the EU on pace to hit its 80% target by 1 November. Levels remain below last year’s 83% and the five-year average, with Germany at 58%, Italy at 78%, and France over 73%. To support restocking, the EU extended the deadline to reach 90% capacity from September to December. Weaker Chinese LNG demand—down nearly 20% in H1 2025—has freed up global supply, allowing Europe to secure more spot cargoes. Despite gains, inventories remain vulnerable to supply shocks. Dutch TTF gas was last up 1.12% at €32.90/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures slipped today, with DCE’s most-traded I2509 contract down 1.75%, closing at 786 yuan/mt. Market activity was subdued, with traders hesitant to sell and steel mills buying cautiously. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 770–775 yuan/mt, down 10–15 yuan from last Friday, while Tangshan prices were 785–790 yuan/mt—also lower by the same margin. On SGX, August 62% Fe futures rose 0.75% to $101.30/mt as of 16:00 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices edged higher as markets looked ahead to upcoming US-China trade talks and key macroeconomic data releases. China faces an August 12 deadline to finalise a tariff deal with the US, following preliminary agreements earlier this year. However, broader sentiment this week is likely to be driven by US Fed decisions and industrial output data. Meanwhile, record-high Comex prices have pulled LME copper into the US, raising concerns about thinning inventories in LME warehouses. LME 3-month copper was up 0.36% at $9,801.50/mt at 16:09 BST.
