25th July 2025
*Coal*
The API2 rally that began mid-morning yesterday extended into today, with prompt swaps gaining nearly $2. The strength in paper markets lifted the forward curve and improved physical bids. Newcastle swaps saw limited activity and traded largely flat for most of the session, but late buying interest into the close pushed the curve modestly higher, ending the day in positive territory.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices held steady on Friday as optimism over US-EU trade talks supported global demand expectations, offsetting concerns over a potential rise in Venezuelan supply. Brent has remained range-bound between $67–$70/bbl over the past month, following June’s decline after de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict. The US may soon allow companies, starting with Chevron, to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially boosting exports by over 200,000 bpd—providing relief to US refiners facing tight heavy crude supplies, according to ING. Disruptions to Black Sea and Azeri BTC exports via Turkey also lent support. September Brent was last down 0.61% at $68.75/bbl (15:17 BST).
*European LNG*
LNG prices softened this week in both Europe and Asia, driven by reduced spot market competition and the return of Gorgon LNG Train 3 post-maintenance. Upcoming shutdowns at Sakhalin 2 and new volumes from LNG Canada are expected to further pressure Asian spot prices. However, most US LNG flows are still favouring Europe. Dutch TTF was last up 1.10% at €32.63/MWh in afternoon trading.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices fell today despite recent bullish sentiment tied to China’s infrastructure stimulus. Beijing’s announcement of a 1.2 trillion yuan mega-dam project in Tibet had earlier driven futures to a four-month high of $104/mt. However, rising Chinese port inventories and weak global steel output capped gains. June global steel production fell 5.8% year-on-year, with Chinese crude steel output down 9.2%, per World Steel Association data. Port stockpiles rose 0.11% week-on-week to 131 Mt, according to SteelHome. On SGX, August 62% Fe futures were down 0.58% to $102.50/mt (15:23 BST).
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices dipped as buyers paused ahead of key developments in US tariff policy and ongoing trade negotiations. Buying interest has waned since mid-July’s support near $9,600/mt, though low LME warehouse inventories continue to provide a floor ahead of September’s seasonal demand uptick. Meanwhile, the EU announced plans for €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, adding to trade tensions. Hopes for renewed US-China talks also drew market focus. LME 3-month copper was last down 0.53% at $9,826.50/mt (15:22 BST).
