21st August 2025
Global commodity markets traded with a cautious tone today, as energy markets weighed geopolitical risks against shifting demand signals. Uncertainty surrounding progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, combined with mixed fundamental drivers across oil, gas, and metals, kept sentiment finely balanced.
Coal
Coal markets softened despite stronger moves elsewhere in energy. API2 futures eased by more than $1, giving back part of their recent gains, even as European gas prices climbed 4% on the day. Newcastle swaps also came under pressure, though some support was seen in the physical market, with an October cargo concluded at $110.50, up from $109.15 last week. Overall, sentiment in swaps turned cautious, with physical activity providing only limited offset.
Brent Crude
Oil prices firmed, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. demand and heightened geopolitical risk. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels last week, nearly double expectations, underlining signs of consumption revival. Meanwhile, Russia reiterated that efforts to resolve Ukraine’s security concerns without its involvement were a “road to nowhere,” with officials also confirming oil flows to India would continue despite U.S. warnings. With Western sanctions still in place and the potential for tighter measures resurfacing, traders leaned bullish, though uncertainty over peace talks continues to cap gains.
Spot Brent at 17h00 BST – $67.40/bll, up 0.84%
European LNG
European gas markets held relatively steady, with Dutch TTF futures posting a modest rise but remaining well below year-ago levels. Ample storage—above seasonal averages—alongside muted demand amid milder weather helped ease near-term pressure. Still, structural risks remain: EU storage mandates and speculative positioning have sustained elevated summer pricing, while compressed seasonal spreads have weakened incentives for further injections. Additionally, high gas costs are prompting some utilities to revert to coal, underlining the fragile balance as Europe heads toward the winter heating season.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 17h00 BST – €33.22/MWh, up 3.13%
Iron Ore
China’s domestic ore market stayed broadly stable, as environmental curbs forced beneficiation plants into maintenance stoppages, tightening local supply. Logistics disruptions added further strain, while increased shipments from Shandong and Anhui partly offset shortages. On the demand side, mills face production restrictions expected to roll out next week, weighing on overall consumption. With futures relatively flat and imported ore prices little changed, local concentrate prices are likely to remain rangebound in the near term, reflecting the twin pressures of constrained supply and muted mill demand.
Spot TSI 62% iron ore fines on SGX at 16h44 BST – $101.25/mt, down 0.20%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices eased in thin summer trade, with markets awaiting direction from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium and Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. A modest lift came from stronger eurozone PMI data, showing new orders rising for the first time since mid-2024. Supply dynamics also drew focus, as Chile’s Codelco cut its 2025 output guidance following an accident at its El Teniente mine, reducing expected production by 33,000 tonnes. In the U.S., political and legal challenges complicated Rio Tinto and BHP’s long-planned Arizona copper project, while tariffs on copper-intensive manufactured goods added another layer of uncertainty. Despite these factors, abundant inventories and subdued demand continue to limit price upside in the near term.
LME 3 month copper at 16h58 BST – $9723/mt , up 0.03%
Commodity markets remain headline-driven, with energy traders particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments and sanctions risks. While stronger U.S. demand data provided some support, uncertainty around Ukraine negotiations and shifting supply dynamics in both oil and metals suggest markets will stay cautious heading into the Jackson Hole meeting.
