22nd July 2025
*Coal*
Seaborne coal prices rebounded after reports of possible output restrictions in China and a sharp rally in Chinese met-coal prices. While no official confirmation of cuts has emerged, the recent bearish trend reversed swiftly. Newcastle swaps rose by as much as $3.50 before easing slightly later in the day. API2 swaps climbed between $1 and $2 across the session.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude fell for a third straight session, down 1.17% at $68.40/bbl (16h04 BST), amid rising supply and looming trade tensions. Markets are awaiting confirmation on whether U.S. President Donald Trump will enforce tariffs on major trading partners from August 1. Although similar threats have often not materialised, the risk to global trade weighs on sentiment. Meanwhile, Saudi crude exports hit a three-month high in May, further pressuring prices. Iran also confirmed plans to resume nuclear talks with European nations to salvage the 2015 accord and avert renewed sanctions.
*European LNG*
LNG prices in Europe held steady near €33/MWh, the lowest in over two weeks. Strong supply and relaxed EU storage targets have helped anchor the market. Extended maintenance at Norway’s Troll field, now set to continue until Thursday with reduced capacity, has not significantly impacted flows. EU LNG imports remain above seasonal norms, with demand outpacing Asia’s. Storage levels are at 65%—below last year’s 83%—with Germany at 57%, Italy at 77%, and France at 73%. The EU has extended the deadline for reaching 90% capacity to December. Dutch TTF gas slipped 1% to €33/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures rose further on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with the I2509 contract hitting 835.5 before closing at 823, up 2.49%. While traders looked to lock in profits, speculative momentum remained soft. Steel mills mostly bought on an as-needed basis. In physical trade, PB fines rose to 798 yuan/ton in Shandong (up 13 yuan), and Tangshan prices climbed to 815 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan). Government-led infrastructure efforts are driving sentiment, but high prices and weak demand limit further upside. SGX August TSI 62% fines eased 0.52% to $105.05/mt.
*Copper (LME)*
LME copper prices edged higher as markets reacted to the U.S. plan to introduce a 50% tariff on refined copper imports from August 1. The move—targeting cathodes—aims to boost domestic refining and cut reliance on imports, especially from Chile, which supplies nearly half of U.S. copper needs. The U.S. premium over LME copper has surged to a record 25%, reflecting earlier inventory builds. However, with only two operational smelters in the U.S., refining capacity is likely to face major strain. LME 3-month copper last traded at $9,890/mt, up 0.26% at 15:34 BST.
