23rd July 2025
*Coal*
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has initiated wide-ranging inspections into excessive coal production, marking a notable regulatory shift by the world’s largest coal producer. Coal prices have now fallen to their lowest levels in four years, amid a persistent supply glut that threatens both industry viability and broader economic stability.
Market sentiment was mixed today. Early gains from yesterday’s rally carried into the morning session, with Newcastle swaps briefly rising over $1 and API2 gaining approximately $0.75. However, sentiment reversed in the afternoon as aggressive European physical offers emerged, putting pressure on API2, which ended the day down $1 on the prompt. The resulting API2 weakness prompted Newcastle bids to retreat, leaving the forward curve largely unchanged. In the physical market, Newcastle activity was varied—an aggressively priced September cargo was offered, while firm October bids provided underlying support.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices declined for a fourth consecutive session, weighed down by escalating trade tensions and the threat of retaliatory measures from the European Union.
Markets were unsettled by EU signals suggesting potential countermeasures against US tariffs, casting doubt on a breakthrough before the 1st August deadline. Some optimism returned after US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan. The deal includes a 15% tariff on US imports and a commitment from Japan to invest $550 billion into the US economy. September Brent futures were last down 0.52% at $68.26.
*European LNG*
European LNG futures dropped by over 1% today, marking their lowest levels in more than two weeks. Ample supply and relaxed storage rules continue to keep downward pressure on prices.
Despite ongoing maintenance at Norway’s Troll field—now extended through Thursday with reduced output—pipeline flows remain stable. LNG imports into the EU remain above seasonal norms, helping rebuild inventories ahead of winter. Demand in Europe continues to outpace weaker-than-expected consumption in Asia. EU gas storage levels now stand at over 65%, down from 83% this time last year. Germany is at 57%, Italy at 77%, and France near 73%. To support restocking efforts, the European Parliament has approved more flexible storage targets, pushing the deadline for reaching 90% capacity from September to December. Dutch TTF gas was last quoted at €32.74, down 1.1%.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices softened on Wednesday, retreating from a five-month high as markets digested increased supply from Brazil’s Vale SA and mixed demand signals from China. This pullback follows a strong two-day rally that saw prices jump over 4%, fuelled by optimism surrounding China’s infrastructure push—including a new dam project in Tibet projected to be nearly three times the size of the Three Gorges. Fresh supply-side data and regulatory uncertainty have now tempered those gains. Although prices have staged a modest recovery in July, they remain below early-year levels, following a five-month decline triggered by weak Chinese construction demand, high port stockpiles, and restricted financing in the property sector. Nevertheless, Beijing has hinted at a policy pivot. Authorities are advancing supply-side reforms in the steel industry aimed at improving mill profitability, which could in turn support raw material prices. However, these reforms also include caps on overproduction—potentially limiting overall iron ore demand. On SGX, TSI 62% futures for August were down 0.48% to $104.05 at 17h03 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
US front-month copper futures are now trading at a record premium over LME prices, with the differential reaching approximately $2,750 per tonne—around 28% above London prices.
Ships carrying copper are racing toward US ports in an attempt to offload cargoes before a 50% tariff comes into effect in August. At least four vessels are currently en route, hoping to exploit the arbitrage opportunity. Missing the deadline could cost traders over $70 million per shipment, based on a standard 15,000-tonne bulk cargo, according to Bloomberg. As of 16:52 BST, LME three-month copper was up 0.09% at $9,924 per metric tonne.
