21st July 2025
*Coal*
The slide from last week extended today as prices opened softer and drifted lower through the session. API2 and NEWC coal benchmarks both closed down around $1. Physical DES ARA market bids weakened, dragging API2 swaps lower, while a similar lack of support in the physical Newcastle market pressured NEWC swaps.
*Brent Crude*
Oil began the day on solid footing thanks to strong summer demand, with U.S. crude inventories falling by 3.9 million barrels last week. However, rising supply concerns and macro headwinds weighed on sentiment. OPEC+ added its third monthly increase of 411,000 bpd on July 1 and will start unwinding 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts from August, beginning with 548,000 bpd next month and likely the same in September. Brent reversed course by mid-afternoon, falling around 1% as attention turned to growing US-EU trade tensions. U.S. tariffs on EU goods could take effect from August 1. Meanwhile, the EU approved its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia, including a lower price cap on crude, refined fuel restrictions, and a ban on a major Indian refinery using Russian oil. China pushed back on EU sanctions aimed at its firms, and Iran’s return to nuclear talks this Friday added to geopolitical uncertainty. September Brent was trading at $68.55/bbl, down nearly 1% by 15:14 BST.
*European LNG*
European LNG prices remained weak, trading below €34/MWh. New EU sanctions on Russia—tightening oil export and banking restrictions and targeting India’s Nayara Energy—are keeping the market cautious. The UK joined the effort, while Russia claimed resilience against Western pressure. Concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on EU goods ahead of the August 1 deadline also weighed on sentiment. On the supply side, Norwegian exports rose as Nyhamna and Kollsnes came back online. In Germany, improved wind output forecasts may reduce short-term gas-for-power demand. Asian LNG demand stabilised post-heatwave, lowering competition for European cargoes. Ample EU storage continues to soften prices. Dutch TTF last traded at €33.51/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 800/tonne, approaching five-month highs on strong Chinese steel mill margins and state support for key industrial sectors. Beijing’s ongoing push to reduce overcapacity and stabilise industries like autos and machinery lifted output and ore demand. Supply remained tight, with falling exports from Brazil and Australia. Some domestic mines resumed production after brief maintenance, but most maintained steady output. Hebei and regional mills were active buyers, with traders also engaged. Elevated hot metal production supported demand for concentrates. With futures firm, domestic prices are likely to stay supported. On SGX, September TSI 62% fines traded at $103.60/mt, down 0.24%.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper gained on improved sentiment after China pledged to stabilise growth across ten core industrial sectors, including nonferrous metals, autos, and construction materials. The government’s push for industrial modernisation is expected to support broader demand for base metals. LME 3-month copper last traded at $9,855/mt, up 0.79% on the day.
