18 July 2025
*Coal*
Coal swaps saw renewed weakness despite opening higher by 50c, as API2 contracts softened through the day. European gas prices remained stable early on but fell around 2% by close, adding pressure to coal. Slightly stronger offers in the physical Newcastle market also contributed to bearish sentiment, leaving NEWC swaps under pressure.
*Brent Crude*
Front-month Brent crude rose toward $70/bbl, extending yesterday’s 1% gain amid supply risks and geopolitical tension. Drone attacks in Iraq’s Kurdistan region disrupted up to 150,000 bpd of output, while Israeli strikes in Syria added to concerns. Seasonal demand and a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories also supported prices. However, upside was capped by ongoing tariff uncertainty and potential output increases by major producers. Brent is still set for a weekly decline of over 1%, its first in three, after President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia eased fears of immediate sanctions.
*European LNG*
Dutch TTF gas futures fell over 2% to €33.66/MWh, as Norwegian flows rebounded to 317 mcm/day with Nyhamna and Kollsnes back online. German forecasts for stronger wind output next week are expected to reduce gas-fired power demand. In Asia, the heatwave that previously diverted LNG cargoes is waning, with signs of stabilising demand in Japan, South Korea, and China. The EU’s relaxed timeline for filling winter gas reserves (90% by December) is also reducing competition for cargoes.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures in Dalian extended their weekly rally, supported by positive demand signals and policy hopes from Beijing. Traders are betting on stronger steel margins as China pushes to tackle overcapacity and signals potential support for the property sector. In Tangshan, the domestic ore market remained quiet, with producers firm on prices (66% dry concentrate offered at ¥890–¥895/mt, incl. tax). Mines were reluctant to sell amid rising futures, which boosted sentiment. On SGX, TSI 62% iron ore for August gained 1.57% to $102.35/mt at 17:06 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices rose to a one-week high, lifted by Chinese buying, improved investor sentiment, and signs of potential progress in U.S.–China trade talks. China’s commerce minister voiced interest in restoring stable trade ties with the U.S., while the Ministry of Industry hinted at economic support for key manufacturing sectors, including autos and electrical equipment. LME 3-month copper was up 1.24%, trading at $9,783.50/mt at 17:41 BST.
