11th July 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices extended their rally for a fifth consecutive session, building on the strong momentum seen since the start of the week. European gas markets also edged higher, with prompt contracts gaining around 1%, while Brent crude oil surged, with the front-month contract rising approximately 2.5%. This broad energy complex strength added to the bullish sentiment in coal swaps. In contrast, the physical markets for DES ARA and Newcastle coal were more stable today, showing little movement despite the gains in paper markets.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices rebounded on Friday, recovering from Thursday’s 2%+ decline as markets awaited a potential U.S. announcement on new sanctions against Russia. Brent crude rose 0.5% to $68.98/bbl, while WTI gained 0.6% to $66.98/bbl. According to Reuters, President Trump is increasingly frustrated with Russia’s lack of progress on Ukraine, heightening geopolitical tensions. Stronger seasonal demand and tight supply fundamentals also supported prices. Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to ship 51 million barrels to China in August—its largest monthly volume in over two years—signalling robust demand. However, gains were tempered by concerns of oversupply, as OPEC+ plans to raise output more than expected in August, with another increase likely in September. Brent crude for September delivery was last up 1.44% at $69.63 as of 14h31 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
Dutch TTF gas futures climbed above €35/MWh—the highest in two weeks—driven by warmer-than-average weather forecasts and stable supply. Following the hottest June on record in Western Europe, next week is expected to bring continued extreme heat, with temperatures above 38°C and record sea surface highs in the western Mediterranean. The European Parliament has approved more flexible gas storage rules, allowing countries to meet the 90% fill target any time between October and December, easing concerns about early storage bottlenecks. TotalEnergies’ CEO said Europe is on track to phase out Russian LNG by 2028, thanks to expanded capacity in the U.S. and Qatar. He also reassured gasoline supply security but warned of potential demand headwinds from rising U.S. tariffs under President Trump.
*Iron Ore*
Singapore iron ore futures for September touched $100/mt in Asian trading—the highest since May—on renewed optimism following Beijing’s pledges to curb overcapacity in key industrial sectors. The rally lifted sentiment across ferrous markets. Iron ore has been trading within the $90–$110 range over the past 18 months. Dalian futures also surged, briefly topping CNY 767/tonne to hit a three-month high. However, by 14h50 BST, September futures on SGX had edged down 0.10% to $99.45/mt.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices slipped Friday as markets weighed the potential demand impact of the U.S.’s 50% import tariff and traders took profits. The LME contract is down roughly 2.5% for the week, its second consecutive weekly loss. Analysts warn that LME copper could retreat toward or below $9,000/mt as tariff uncertainty lingers. Investors remain unclear on which copper products will be covered and whether any countries will receive exemptions. COMEX copper hit a record $5.90/lb earlier this week following the tariff announcement but fell 1.5% to $5.51/lb by 12h20 GMT on Friday. The COMEX premium over LME copper has widened to $2,521/ton, or 26%. LME 3-month copper was down 0.39% at $9,665/mt by 15h07 BST.
