10th July 2025
*Coal*
Gas and coal prices extended their rally for a fourth consecutive session, with the CAL26 API2 contract up $6 so far this week. Physical markets in Europe, South Africa, and Newcastle moved quickly to align with gains in the paper market. In the Australian market, a prompt August cargo traded at $109.75 in Newcastle, up $2.50 from Tuesday’s last trade. After a slow start to the week, trading volumes picked up significantly today.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude slipped for the first time in four sessions, with the September contract down 1.61% at $69.04/bbl at 16h11 BST. Rising inventories and expectations that U.S. tariff policies may slow global growth weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering pausing planned production increases from October, signalling concern about potential oversupply as peak summer demand winds down. Geopolitical tensions added a temporary risk premium after Houthi rebels renewed attacks in the Red Sea, sinking two vessels and killing crew members.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European natural gas prices rose 2% by midday, with Dutch TTF trading at €35.13/MWh at 16h15 BST. A prolonged heatwave across Western Europe has increased demand for cooling, even amid strong solar power output. EU gas storage is now 61% full, but prices remain sensitive to short-term demand shifts in both Europe and Asia. The European Parliament’s approval to push the 90% storage target deadline from November to December has further reduced near-term supply pressure. Forecasts indicate elevated temperatures will continue, after the hottest June on record saw both land and sea temperatures surpass 38°C in parts of the region.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices rallied sharply on Thursday, with the most-traded Dalian I2509 contract closing up 3.67% at CNY 763.5/mt. Strong trader selling met cautious buying from steel mills, which hesitated amid the fast price rise. Market activity was moderate, though a steeper-than-expected inventory draw supported sentiment. While apparent demand fell slightly in line with seasonal trends, end-use consumption remained unexpectedly robust, reinforcing the bullish outlook. SGX August TSI 62% futures were up 0.25% at $99.05/mt at 16h13 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper edged higher as the market adjusted to President Trump’s 50% import tariff announcement. A softer U.S. dollar and renewed hopes of industrial stimulus in major economies added support. The tariff widened the COMEX-LME price premium to a record 25%, effectively halting U.S. stockpile builds seen since February, when tariff risks emerged. With nearly half of U.S. copper imports coming from Chile, global trade flows are expected to shift. LME 3-month copper was up 1.07% at $9,731.50/mt at 16h18 BST.
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