*Coal*
The API2 curve opened with firm buying interest, pushing the CAL26 contract up by $1.50 by session close. Strong physical bids underpinned Newcastle prompt swaps, while robust interest in the CAL26 contract drove further gains on the forward curve.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude briefly touched $70/bbl in early trading before easing, amid renewed geopolitical tensions and tight market conditions. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes added a geopolitical risk premium, while strong seasonal demand continues to support time spreads. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised its 2025 production forecast downward, citing weaker prices and slower activity among shale producers. The supply outlook remains tight through the northern hemisphere summer, lending underlying support to prices. Brent futures for September were up 0.30% at 16h44, to $70.37/bll.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
Dutch TTF gas was last at €34.42/MWh, holding steady after the European Parliament approved a relaxation of gas storage rules. While the 90% fill target remains, countries can now reach it anytime between October and December, rather than by 1 November, easing pressure on the market. As of July 5, storage stood at 64.5 bcm, up from 50% capacity a month ago. Over the past 30 days, EU nations injected about 11 bcm into storage, helping to stabilise prices amid moderate demand and steady supply.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures held firm, with Dalian’s most-traded I2509 contract closing at 736.5, up 0.68% on the day. While China’s pig iron production dipped slightly, high steel mill margins are limiting deeper cuts, and production is expected to rise next week. Concurrently, overseas supply has tightened as mines enter seasonal maintenance, further reinforcing a bullish supply-demand dynamic. On SGX, August TSI 62% fines were up 0.55% at $96.60/mt at 16h02 BST, extending the market’s rebound trend.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices pared earlier losses after U.S. President Trump announced a 50% import tariff—double market expectations—on a range of commodities. The move widened the premium between U.S. and global copper prices to a record 25%, curbing flows of LME copper into the U.S. and effectively ending stockpile-driven arbitrage. With incentives to ship metal across markets diminished, traders anticipate a more balanced global copper flow. COMEX copper was trading around $5.50/lb, while LME 3-month futures were down 1.56% at $9,625/mt at 16h02 BST.
