8th July 2025
*Coal*
Trading volumes improved on Tuesday, buoyed by a late-session rally that saw the API2 CAL26 contract climb $2. The upward momentum helped lift the broader curve, indicating renewed buying interest. In the Pacific, Newcastle swaps gained early in the session, rising about $1.50 on increased morning activity. European physical prices tracked gains in the paper market, while in Asia, an August Newcastle cargo traded lower at $107.25. Despite this physical clip, paper markets remained resilient, continuing to push higher.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices were mostly steady on Tuesday as the market digested OPEC+’s weekend decision to accelerate supply increases in August. While some analysts expect the additional barrels to be absorbed by robust summer demand, concerns are mounting that supply will outpace consumption by September, especially as global inventories—after two years of steady declines—are expected to rise into the autumn on seasonal weakness. Adding to market unease, Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a second attack on Red Sea shipping, renewing fears of disruption along this critical trade route. September Brent futures were trading at $69.73/bbl at 15h23 BST, up 0.19%.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
Dutch TTF gas prices remained stable around €34/MWh, hovering near two-month lows. Cooling demand has dropped off as the recent European heatwave fades, and higher wind generation continues to reduce gas-fired power demand. On the supply side, flows remain strong from Norway, and LNG send-outs are consistent. Additionally, weak demand in China—pressured by its slowing economy and rising U.S. tariffs—has diverted more cargoes to Europe, helping to maintain ample supply. EU gas storage levels remain healthy, currently at 60.3% of capacity. At last check, Dutch TTF was at €34.10/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures inched higher on Tuesday, recovering from two days of losses, as investor sentiment steadied following U.S. President Trump’s extension of a reciprocal tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1. The move eased immediate trade uncertainty, although tensions linger as China warned of countermeasures if excluded from global supply chains. Futures traded around CNY 736/tonne, while TSI 62% fines for August were steady at $96/mt at 16h02 BST. Analysts at Nanhua Futures cautioned that valuations have outpaced physical fundamentals and see a risk of correction if spot demand does not improve. Despite trade headwinds, prices remain supported by China’s ongoing policy support for the steel sector, including tighter regulation on aggressive price competition and efforts to address overcapacity and low margins.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices were steady on Tuesday, supported by a softer dollar but weighed by fresh concerns over global growth and demand. The U.S. formalised new tariffs on 14 countries, ranging from 25% to 40%, to be implemented on August 1. Trump also warned of an additional 10% tariff on BRICS nations if they pursue “anti-American” policies. The macro backdrop has curbed optimism in the copper market despite recent supply tightness. LME inventories have risen 13% since late June, now totalling 102,500 tonnes, easing some concern but still short of broader demand. COMEX copper remained below $5/lb, while LME 3-month copper was last down 0.53% at $9,778/mt at 16h00 BST.
