London Commodity News

15th July 2025
Coal
Coal swaps continued to retreat today, with much of the API2 and Newcastle (NEWC) forward curves falling by more than $2, extending the recent bearish trend. The softer sentiment also translated into the physical markets, with more competitive offers seen across DES ARA and Newcastle cargoes. Overall, weaker fundamentals and broader energy complex pressure are keeping momentum tilted to the downside for coal.
Brent Crude
Oil prices held steady today after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine, threatening secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil and 100% tariffs on Russian imports if no resolution is reached. Despite the strong rhetoric, markets remain sceptical that such measures will be enforced, given the administration’s focus on keeping U.S. gasoline prices low. The move effectively allows Russian oil to continue flowing during the peak summer driving season, supporting global supply. Brent September futures were trading at $69.30/bbl at 16:32 BST, up 0.13%.
European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)
Dutch TTF gas futures dipped below €35/MWh, as stable Norwegian flows and moderate demand help calm the market. Trump’s 50-day ultimatum eased immediate fears of supply disruption, although the timing coincides with Norway’s seasonal maintenance beginning in late August, adding a layer of uncertainty. At the same time, a heatwave in North Asia is diverting LNG cargoes from Europe, raising concerns about a tighter market as the EU builds winter reserves. Storage levels currently sit at around 62%, below seasonal norms. While warmer weather is lifting cooling demand, forecasts suggest more average temperatures later this month. Broader economic concerns, fuelled by tariff tensions, are also capping upside. TTF gas was last seen down over 3%, trading at €34.37/MWh.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices remained near a three-month high, with futures in China trading around CNY764.5/mt. Positive economic indicators and stronger Australia-China ties are providing support, despite ongoing concerns over China’s property market. China’s Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, with industrial output up 6.8% in June—both above expectations despite U.S. tariffs. However, potential cuts to Chinese steel capacity and weak housing data continue to weigh on sentiment. New home prices saw their steepest monthly drop in eight months. August 62% Fe fines futures were slightly lower, down 0.25% to $98.70/mt at 16:40 BST.
Copper (LME)
LME copper prices traded within a narrow range as China’s GDP growth of 5.2% met expectations and traders awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on future monetary policy. Year-to-date, China’s GDP grew 5.3%, with fixed asset investment rising 2.8%. The U.S. dollar remained firm near a three-week high amid speculation over possible leadership changes at the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, COMEX copper held around $5.50/lb. Markets are also watching for developments in U.S. trade policy, as Trump signals a renewed interest in negotiations with the EU and other partners. LME 3 month copper was trading up 0.27% at $9644.50/mt at 16h49 BST.