30th June 2025
*Coal*
Coal swaps saw another volatile session, with buying interest in NEWC lifting front-end contracts by nearly $4 at one point amid thin liquidity. Gains eased later in the day, but shorter-dated contracts still closed around $2 higher. European gas prices were weaker but remained rangebound, offering little directional influence on API2, which appeared to follow the strength in NEWC.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices edged lower on Monday as strong seasonal demand was offset by rising supply. OPEC+ is set to add 411,000 barrels per day from Tuesday, marking its fourth consecutive monthly production increase, with a similar hike being considered for August. The market has calmed since mid-June, when prices surged following Israel’s 12-day conflict with Iran. The ceasefire agreement, following a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, removed the geopolitical risk premium, sending prices down over $10 per barrel last week. August Brent futures were trading at $67.56/bbl, down 0.31% at 16:00 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas futures fell to €32.81/MWh, an eight-week low, pressured by ample supply, subdued demand, and easing geopolitical concerns. The Israel-Iran ceasefire—brokered by U.S. President Trump—alleviated concerns over potential LNG disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, weak Chinese demand, linked to economic slowdown and new U.S. tariffs, has freed up LNG cargoes for Europe. Further bearish pressure came from a new EU agreement allowing member states more flexibility to meet gas storage targets, pushing back the 90% fill requirement to the October–December window.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures in Dalian posted their first monthly gain in four months, supported by falling inventories and firm short-term demand in China. Port stockpiles declined to 133.6 million tons, and steel inventories dropped for a seventh straight week, indicating steady consumption. However, macroeconomic headwinds limited gains. China’s manufacturing sector contracted for a third consecutive month in June, amid weak consumer demand, intensifying price competition, and ongoing property sector stress. On SGX, TSI 62% iron ore fines futures were last at $93.85/mt, down 0.18%.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices softened slightly as investors weighed mixed Chinese factory data and broader trade developments. China’s manufacturing contraction slowed in June, offering modest reassurance that stimulus efforts may be gaining traction. The weaker U.S. dollar also supported metals markets, with the dollar index near its lowest level in over three years. Supply concerns remain front and centre: LME copper inventories fell to 91,275 metric tons, their lowest in nearly two years, while SHFE stockpiles dropped 19% to a one-month low. LME 3-month copper was down 0.15% at $9,861.50/mt at 15:55 BST.
