2nd July 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices rose again, supported by stronger bids in both the Newcastle and DES ARA physical markets. European gas prices were more stable but edged lower, while Brent crude oil closed the day up approximately 1.5%.
Brent Crude
Oil prices edged higher early Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened to a three-year low, helping offset bearish inventory data and rising OPEC+ supply. September Brent was last up 0.46% at $67.41/bbl at 15:54 BST. Despite an unexpected 0.68 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude stocks—breaking a four-week decline and defying expectations for a 2.26 million-barrel draw—oil remained supported. Prices have stabilised over the last five sessions after falling $10/bbl post-ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which eased geopolitical tensions and trimmed the risk premium. Market sentiment remains cautious due to the potential for new U.S. tariffs after the July 9 deadline, clouding the global demand outlook.
European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)
Dutch TTF gas futures briefly rebounded to €34/MWh but later eased 0.91% to €33.58 as traders weighed changing weather and supply dynamics. Cooling demand is expected to fall as Europe’s heatwave subsides, while increased wind power in Northwest Europe could further suppress gas-for-power generation. Supply remains steady, with robust Norwegian flows and LNG send-outs. Prices remain pressured by China’s weak LNG demand amid economic slowdown and U.S. tariffs, which have rerouted shipments toward Europe. Last week’s ceasefire between Iran and Israel also eased fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. On the regulatory front, the European Commission is preparing a binding 2040 target to cut emissions by 90% from 1990 levels, which could influence long-term gas strategy.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures rebounded to around CNY 720/ton, recovering from a two-day decline as falling shipments from Australia and Brazil raised short-term supply concerns. A marginal dip in global seaborne supply also added support. A private Chinese survey showed factory activity returned to expansion in June, suggesting renewed industrial momentum. Hot metal output—closely tied to iron ore demand—continues to rise monthly. However, upside is capped by persistent weakness in China’s property sector. On SGX, August TSI 62% futures were marginally lower at $95.50/mt at 16:11 BST, down 0.05%.
Copper (LME)*
LME 3-month copper crossed the $10,000/mt mark, its highest level in three months, amid tightening supply and improved sentiment tied to potential U.S. trade deals. Spot contracts traded at a premium to futures, reflecting near-term shortages. Inventories have plunged on both the LME and ShFE, partly due to surging shipments to the U.S. ahead of possible tariffs. In China, copper surpassed ¥80,000/mt, though weaker downstream demand is starting to show. LME 3 month copper was up 0.69% at $10,003.50/mt at 16h06 BST
