26th June 2025
*Coal*
The energy complex saw another volatile session on Thursday. European gas prices were stable early on but fell sharply in the afternoon, leaving the front-month contract down around 5%. Brent crude, by contrast, rose just over 1% by the close. Coal markets diverged, with short-term API2 attracting some buying interest, while NEWC swaps came under renewed pressure relative to other indices.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices edged higher for a second day on Thursday, supported by signs of strong U.S. summer demand. The EIA reported a 5.8-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories last week—well above the expected 0.8-million-barrel decline—leaving stockpiles 11% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories also fell, reflecting robust driving activity. However, supply concerns remain as OPEC+ prepares to add another 411,000 bpd from July 1 and may consider a further increase in August when it meets on July 6. August Brent futures were up nearly 1.5% at $68.67/bbl at 16:04 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas futures rose above €35/MWh in morning trading, recovering from earlier losses as a heatwave drives cooling demand. Cities like Madrid (40°C), Zagreb (36°C), and Paris (33°C) are facing intense heat, lifting energy usage, while the Nordics and Eastern Europe face cooler, stormy weather. Meanwhile, the Iran-Israel ceasefire continues to ease concerns over LNG disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, despite some violations. Dutch TTF Gas was last seen trading at €33.987/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore reversed earlier losses on Thursday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and pledges from Chinese officials to boost domestic consumption. However, gains were limited by rising inventories and weak demand. Mysteel reported sintering fines stocks rose for a third week to 12.3 million tonnes, while consumption dipped 1.5% week-on-week. Exports from Australia and Brazil surged to 30.1 million tonnes last week—the highest this year. Rio Tinto also secured final approval for its Hope Downs 2 project, expected to add 31 million tonnes annually. Meanwhile, global steel production fell 3.8% YoY in May, signalling sluggish demand. SGX 62% Fe fines were up 0.59% at $94.10/mt at 16:11 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices continued climbing on Thursday amid tightening supply and soaring short-term premiums. The one-day LME spread hit a $98/t premium—the highest since the 2021 short squeeze—highlighting stress from low inventories. U.S. tariff threats under President Trump have driven traders to redirect copper flows, pushing COMEX prices above $5.05/lb and depleting LME stockpiles, which are down 80% this year. This has triggered aggressive backwardation and a sharp drop in available inventory. LME 3-month copper was up 1.85% at $9,896/mt at 16:07 BST.
