24th June 2025
*Coal*
A highly volatile session saw energy markets retreat sharply after news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. European gas prices plunged over 10%, while Brent crude fell nearly 5% as geopolitical risk premiums unwound. Coal swaps opened weaker, fluctuated through the day, and then dropped more decisively in the afternoon, with API2 ending down around $5. Other coal indices were less impacted.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive day as geopolitical risk premiums faded following a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel and both nations stepping back from direct confrontation. With fears of supply disruption from the Persian Gulf easing, market focus returned to oversupply concerns. OPEC+ remains on track to unwind production cuts, with an additional 411,000 bpd set to return from July 1. Outside the cartel, U.S. output remains near record highs above 13 million bpd, while S&P Global raised its Canadian oil sands forecast to a record 3.5 million bpd in 2024, rising to 3.9 million bpd by 2030. August Brent was down 4.67% to $68.19/bbl at 15:39 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas futures plunged over 12%—their sharpest drop in more than a week—after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel. The truce, if it holds, would ease fears of LNG supply disruption via the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global trade. Meanwhile, southern Europe braces for a heatwave—temperatures reached 40°C in Madrid—supporting near-term demand, though cooler, stormy weather is expected in the Nordics and eastern Europe. Dutch TTF Gas was last down 12.12% at €35.71/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures were flat to slightly higher as limited fallout from Middle East tensions and firm fundamentals helped cap downside pressure. Spot supply remains abundant, narrowing spreads between futures and physical markets to near parity. Slight gains in pig iron output this week are expected to support demand. SGX TSI 62% July futures were up 0.05% at $94.40/mt by 15:27 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks, supported by a weaker dollar and a firmer yuan after the U.S.-brokered ceasefire announcement. Three-month LME copper rose 0.17% to $9,677/mt by 15:38 BST, having touched $9,760.50 earlier. LME stock drawdowns and strong demand for cash contracts continue to drive near-term tightness, though the cash-three-month premium eased slightly to $249/t after hitting a 2.5-year high of $280/t on Monday.
