23rd June 2025
*Coal*
It was a volatile session across the energy complex following U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend, with uncertainty over potential escalation driving early gains. Oil and European gas prices opened stronger but drifted lower through the day, with front-month contracts for both Brent crude and gas ending near flat. Coal swaps saw firmer bids in the morning, buoyed by strength elsewhere in the complex, and while they also eased later in the day, they closed moderately higher.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices rose early Monday after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites but later retreated as markets assessed the risk of Iranian retaliation. Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for 20% of global oil flows—but its ability to do so remains uncertain. Despite the conflict, Iran’s crude exports appear to be rising. August Brent crude futures were down 0.95% at $76.28/bbl as of 16:03 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas futures briefly rose above €41/MWh on Monday before easing, as markets braced for Iran’s response to U.S. airstrikes. Fears remain that Iran could disrupt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for LNG and oil. Iran’s foreign minister warned of “all options” being on the table, while Israel continued strikes on military targets. Meanwhile, above-average temperatures across Europe are boosting gas demand. Dutch TTF was last down 1.15% at €40.47/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures climbed to their highest in over a week, driven by improving demand signals in China. The most-traded September DCE contract rose 0.5% to 706 yuan/ton ($98.25), with blast furnace utilisation nearing 84% and hot metal output above 2.4 million tons. However, weather disruptions and a 6.9% drop in May steel output tempered sentiment. SGX 62% Fe futures were up 0.37% at $94.35/mt as of 16:11 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper gained slightly, supported by tight inventories and short covering. LME copper stocks fell below 100,000 tons—the lowest since August 2023—while 45% is under cancelled warrants, tightening availability. SHFE inventories also dropped 1.1% on the week. The cash-to-3-month premium surged to $180/ton, up from $3 a month ago, with the “tom-next” spread flipping to a $48 premium. LME 3M copper was last up 0.28% at $9,659.50/mt.
