8th May 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices extended their decline today, continuing the pullback from the recent two-week rally. API2 futures fell by nearly $4 at one stage, though much of the loss was recovered later in the session. The broader energy complex provided some support, with European gas and oil prices both rallying around 3% by the close. Oil’s continued volatility contributed to the afternoon rebound in coal, helping limit the day’s downside.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude rose on Thursday, supported by optimism over upcoming US-China trade talks and a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet China’s top economic official in Switzerland on May 10, marking the start of renewed negotiations aimed at resolving the trade dispute. Brent climbed 2.36% to $62.55, recovering from earlier losses after US data showed crude stockpiles fell by over 2 million barrels last week, exceeding the forecasted 1.7 million-barrel draw. However, a rise in gasoline prices raised concerns about weak demand ahead of the US driving season. Prices remain under pressure from OPEC+ plans to accelerate production hikes and continued economic uncertainty, with the Fed keeping rates steady and noting rising downside risks.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas futures rose sharply, with Dutch TTF up 3.37% to €35.39/MWh, driven by tightening supply and recovering global LNG demand. Asian buyers, particularly from China, returned to the spot market after a lull, increasing competition for cargoes. Europe’s gas storage remains below seasonal norms—at just 41.16% as of May 4—raising concerns ahead of the next heating season. Germany’s storage is at 34.6%, France at 45.37%, and Italy at 49.88%. The market was further supported by reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to maintenance and outages, as well as the EU’s proposed ban on new Russian gas contracts. Trade optimism also lifted sentiment, as hopes grow for a de-escalation in the US-China tariff conflict.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures on the DCE dropped sharply, with the I2509 contract down 2.73% to close at 693.5. The fall was triggered by three bearish developments: China’s clearer roadmap for steel production cuts, a notable week-on-week drop in demand for key steel products, and renewed US-China trade tensions after Washington signalled a tougher stance. Despite this, stable pig iron output continues to support overall iron ore demand. PB fines in Shandong fell 5–10 yuan to 750–755 yuan/mt, and in Tangshan to 765–770 yuan/mt. SGX June TSI 62%Fe iron ore futures also edged lower, down 0.15% to $96.65/mt.
*Copper*
Copper prices slipped amid caution ahead of weekend US-China trade talks. While the talks could signal a shift in the ongoing tariff standoff, markets are not expecting immediate breakthroughs. Global manufacturing data remains weak, with PMI figures in China, the US, and Europe showing contracting industrial activity, limiting copper’s demand outlook. Meanwhile, supply-side pressure grew as the International Copper Study Group revised its 2024 surplus forecast to nearly 300,000 tonnes—double the previous estimate—on the back of strong South American mine output. LME 3-month copper was down slightly at $9,405/mt, a drop of 0.06%.
