7th May 2025
Coal
After nearly two weeks of steady gains, the coal rally paused on Wednesday as prices eased slightly by the close, despite a strong start to the session. Newcastle coal saw a robust physical print of $96 for June delivery—up nearly $6 from the last recorded trade in late April. European and South African coal markets also saw firmer bids, catching up to the recent momentum in paper markets.
Brent Crude
Brent crude slipped -0.8% to $61.64/barrel by 16h16 BST, trimming earlier gains as optimism over renewed U.S.-China trade talks and falling inventories faded. Prices initially rose after API data showed a 4.5 million-barrel drop in U.S. stockpiles, ahead of official EIA figures expected to confirm an 800,000-barrel decline. However, sentiment remains cautious amid OPEC+’s plan to accelerate output increases, raising fears of oversupply. Despite recent price weakness, signs of a potential supply correction are emerging as U.S. producers scale back drilling. Traders are also watching for the Fed’s interest rate decision, with expectations for a hold amid global economic uncertainty.
Dutch TTF Gas
Dutch TTF gas dropped -1.2% to €34.50/MWh as the market paused after a strong rally. Traders weighed EU plans to ban new Russian gas contracts and increasing LNG demand from Asia. While Chinese buyers are returning to the spot market, competition for cargoes is rising, particularly as Malaysian LNG output recovers. European storage levels remain below average—at 41.16% overall, with Germany at just 34.6%—and reduced Norwegian flows may further hamper replenishment. Market focus remains on upcoming US-China trade talks and broader geopolitical dynamics shaping gas demand and supply.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures on the DCE closed 0.35% higher at 708, with traders showing moderate selling interest and steel mills buying cautiously. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 760–765 yuan/mt, up slightly, while Tangshan prices rose to 770–780 yuan/mt. Sentiment was buoyed by new macroeconomic stimulus measures announced at a State Council press conference, though speculation around upcoming crude steel production cuts has created a tug-of-war between bullish policy signals and bearish fundamentals. June 62%Fe TSI fines CFR China were last down -0.53% at $97.80/mt at 16h33 BST.
Copper
Copper retreated -1.34% to $9,428.50/mt on the LME by 16h33 BST, giving back recent gains as weak global PMI data and rising inventories weighed on sentiment. Despite expectations of stimulus from China and progress in US-China trade talks, the metal came under pressure. Reports indicate Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland to discuss trade, raising hopes of easing tensions. However, U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential 25% tariffs added downside pressure, while rate cuts from the PBOC failed to offset demand concerns.
