6th May 2025
*Coal*
The momentum from last week’s rally carried into today, with gas markets surging 5%. Coal benchmarks followed suit, as both API2 and NEWC posted strong prompt gains of over $3, despite physical markets remaining largely flat.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices rebounded from four-year lows on Tuesday, with June Brent up 3.7% to $62.40/barrel. Traders took advantage of the dip, despite OPEC+ confirming plans to restore an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June, continuing its phased return of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts. The market also found support from the return of Chinese buyers post-holiday and signs of weakening U.S. shale output. Saudi Arabia’s modest cut to official selling prices helped soften market concerns, signalling a cautious stance on defending market share. A stronger-than-expected U.S. services PMI reading added to the bullish tone by suggesting underlying demand resilience.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures rose 4.7% to €34.60/MWh, marking a third consecutive session of gains. Seasonal maintenance and unplanned Norwegian pipeline outages have tightened supply, while rising global LNG demand—driven by Chinese buyers re-entering the spot market—is raising competition for cargoes. Storage levels remain below the five-year average: as of May 4, EU gas storage was at 41.16%, with Germany at 34.6%, France at 45.37%, and Italy at 49.88%. Market sentiment was further buoyed by optimism over renewed U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of the EU’s proposed ban on new gas contracts with Russia, including spot deals. North Asia LNG prices rebounded above $11/mmBtu as lower prices lured buyers back into the market.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices remained stable on Tuesday, with the DCE I2509 contract closing flat at 704.5 yuan/mt. Trading was moderate as market participants returned from the holiday, with limited speculative activity and steel mills buying only on a need basis. PB fines were steady at 755–760 yuan/mt in Shandong and 765–775 yuan/mt in Tangshan. On the SGX, June 62% TSI iron ore fines traded at $98.50, up 0.86% by 16:06 BST.
*Copper*
Copper gained 1.82% to $9,531/mt on the LME, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar. However, trade war concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. Markets are watching closely for signs of easing tensions after China indicated it is open to talks regarding the 145% tariffs imposed by the U.S. last week. As one of the world’s largest consumers of industrial metals, China’s stance on trade will remain a key driver for copper demand and prices in the coming weeks.
*Chrome Ore*
Chrome ore prices were stable following the holiday, with buying focused on dip-driven, rigid demand spot orders. Strong planned production in both ferrochrome and stainless steel sectors is supporting near-term demand. Prices for spot chrome concentrate were assessed at $304–$320/mt CFR Tianjin. Stability is expected to continue in the short term.
