9th May 2025
*Coal*
It was a relatively quiet session in terms of price movement, with API2 coal prices continuing to edge lower, while NEWC coal hovered around flat. European gas prices also softened, ending the day down around 2%. In the physical market, a DES ARA cargo for June 2025 delivery traded at a slight premium to paper levels, marking the first DES ARA trade since late April. The transaction suggests some renewed interest in physical cargoes, even as broader sentiment remains cautious.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures climbed above $63 per barrel on Friday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and positioning for a weekly advance. Market sentiment was buoyed by optimism ahead of weekend trade talks between the US and China—raising hopes for progress in resolving tensions between the world’s two largest oil consumers. The announcement of a new US-UK trade deal further lifted investor confidence. On the supply side, focus remained on OPEC+, where plans to gradually increase production were tempered by a Reuters survey showing unexpected output declines in April, particularly from Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq. These reductions effectively offset planned production hikes and helped stabilise prices. Earlier in the week, a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories and early signs of supply tightening also contributed to the bullish tone. At last check, June Brent was up 1.75% to $63.54.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas prices surged over 9% this week, nearing €36/MWh, supported by changes to EU storage policy and renewed concerns over long-term supply security. EU lawmakers voted to reduce the mandatory gas storage target to 83% by November 1, down from the current 90%, making the target more attainable amid tighter inventories. This policy shift bolstered market sentiment, suggesting Europe may more easily replenish reserves ahead of winter. However, volatility remains high due to persistent geopolitical risks and uncertain demand. EU storage levels remain below average—just 41.84% full as of May 9. With the bloc aiming to phase out Russian gas imports entirely by 2027, reliance on alternative suppliers such as the US and Qatar continues to grow. Yet rising demand in Asia, driven by extreme weather, may limit available LNG cargoes for Europe and add upward pressure to prices. At last look, Dutch TTF Gas was down 2.74% to €34.65/MWh as traders took profit.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures on the DCE slipped slightly on Friday, with the most-traded I2509 contract closing at 696, down 0.57%. Trading activity was muted, with some traders moderately keen to offload cargo, while steel mills slowed procurement ahead of the weekend. Market sentiment remained cautious amid reports that Chinese regulators may soon prohibit property developers from selling homes before completion—tightening liquidity for a sector already under stress. If implemented, the move could weaken one of the largest sources of steel demand in China and trigger broader cuts in steel production. Baosteel has hinted at a possible government-mandated nationwide output reduction of up to 50 million tonnes this year to address oversupply and softening demand. On the Singapore Exchange, TSI 62% Fe iron ore rose 0.41% to $97.40.
*Copper*
Copper prices in London edged higher on Friday, supported by a weaker US dollar and signs of tightening spot supply. The premium for nearby LME copper contracts over longer-dated ones hit a two-and-a-half-year high, reflecting short-term scarcity. President Trump expressed confidence that meaningful trade discussions with China would take place this weekend, suggesting the current 145% tariffs on Chinese goods might be rolled back—a prospect that lifted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and in LME warehouses are tightening, as more metal is diverted into COMEX warehouses amid a US probe into irregular trading activities. LME 3-month copper was last up 0.43% at $9,471.50 by 15:03 BST.
