2nd April 2025
*Coal*
Recent strength in coal markets met resistance today, with selling pressure dominating and both API2 and NEWC prices falling significantly across the curve. Despite this, physical Newcastle for May ’25 loading traded $7 higher than last week, though it remains at a steep discount to paper levels. Meanwhile, after yesterday’s gains, front-month European gas dropped 3.5%, further weighing on API2 swaps.
*Brent Crude*
Oil markets were mixed today after data showed a rise in U.S. inventories ahead of OPEC+ easing its 2.2-million bpd production cuts this month. Market attention is also shifting to fresh tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, set to be announced Wednesday. Trump aims to generate $600 billion annually through these tariffs, the largest tax hike in U.S. history, according to CNN. At 16h22 BST, May Brent crude was down 0.19% at $73.62.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices declined as winter risks faded, but forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures and upcoming maintenance in Norway could tighten supply. With EU gas storage at just 33.6%, meeting the 90% target by November 1 remains a challenge. BofA estimates global LNG supply will rise by 15-16 million mt between April and October. However, Europe would need an additional 23 million mt to meet its target, potentially driving prices to €60-80/MWh in H2 to curb demand. Dutch TTF Gas traded at €41.10 this afternoon, down 3.7%.
*Iron Ore*
DCE iron ore futures edged higher today, with the I2505 contract closing at 791.5, up 1.09%. Traders sold based on market conditions, while steel mills restocked cautiously, keeping overall trading muted. PB fines in Shandong traded between 785-790 yuan/mt, while in Tangshan, prices held at 800 yuan/mt, both unchanged from yesterday. Meanwhile, 62% Fe TSI iron ore fines on SGX for May dipped 0.44% to $102.55 at 16h27 BST.
*Copper*
Copper prices drifted higher as investors awaited details of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, while tin surged to a nearly three-year high on supply concerns. Uncertainty remains high due to geopolitical tensions and currency volatility. Markets are bracing for retaliatory trade measures following Trump’s expected tariff announcement. LME 3-month copper was up 0.10% at $9706.50 at 16h27 BST.
