31st March 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices extended gains today, with API2 making the largest moves, rising over $2 across the curve. The physical DES ARA market showed improved support, contributing to the upward momentum.
In contrast, European gas prices remained relatively stable, with shorter-term contracts closing near unchanged.
Meanwhile, the physical Newcastle market lacked clear direction, but NEWC swaps followed API2 strength higher.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices climbed early Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, stating he may impose up to 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from nations purchasing Russian crude unless Putin complies with a partial ceasefire in Ukraine. However, doubts remain over whether Trump will follow through on these threats.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to begin a gradual output increase in April, with reports suggesting further hikes in May. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, taking effect April 2, have also raised fears of a global trade war, potentially slowing economic growth and weakening energy demand.
At 16h09 BST, Brent for May settlement was up 2.07%, trading at $73.50.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
As Europe’s heating season nears its end, natural gas prices remain under pressure, with traders shifting focus to storage replenishment. Current storage levels are below 34%, compared to nearly 59% this time last year, raising concerns about supply security.
Some relief may come from China’s decision to allow refiners to export around 19mt of clean products, similar to the first quota issued in 2024. Additionally, high summer gas prices have eroded the incentive to store fuel, creating uncertainty about whether stockpiling will proceed smoothly or require intervention.
At 16h00 BST, Dutch TTF Gas was down 0.12%, trading at €40.58/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures continued to edge lower on Monday, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 773, down 1.47%. Steel mills remained cautious, showing limited interest in purchasing as Beijing signaled plans to curb steel production due to overcapacity concerns. While no official policy has been released, some mills have voluntarily reduced output in anticipation, weighing on iron ore demand.
Additionally, fresh U.S. tariffs have fueled concerns about a deepening trade war, dampening the outlook for industrial metals.
At 16h14 BST, 62% Fe iron ore fines on SGX were trading at $101.50 for May, up 0.45.
*Copper*
Copper prices declined in early trade amid broader risk-off sentiment, as markets braced for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to take effect Wednesday.
The spread between LME and Comex contracts continues to widen, with traders rushing to import copper into the U.S. before the tariffs hit.
At 16h13 BST, LME 3-month copper was down 0.90, trading at $9,710.50.
