3rd April 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices fell sharply across major indices today, extending their recent decline amid worsening global market sentiment. U.S. tariffs on multiple countries triggered a broad sell-off in equities and commodities, with Brent crude and European gas prices plunging around 5%.
Weaker physical Newcastle market support added to the bearish trend, pushing NEWC swaps lower. The combination of macro uncertainty and reduced buying interest kept pressure on coal markets, reinforcing the negative momentum seen in recent sessions.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices plunged over 6% today, with Brent crude falling below $70 per barrel, as OPEC+ announced larger-than-expected production increases and U.S. President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs. Eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly committed to raising output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, far exceeding the planned 135,000 bpd. OPEC cited strong market fundamentals but left the door open to adjusting future increases if needed.
Meanwhile, Trump’s new tariffs have heightened concerns about a global trade war, potentially slowing economic growth and dampening fuel demand. Though oil imports were exempt, markets feared the broader economic impact. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly by 6.2 million barrels last week, against expectations of a 2-million-barrel draw, due to a surge in Canadian imports. At 16h36 BST, June Brent crude was trading at $69.83, down 6.86%.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures slid to €39/MWh, a four-week low, as warmer weather curbed demand and Trump’s trade tariffs raised uncertainty. The new “reciprocal tariff” policy, imposing 20% duties on EU imports and 10% on UK goods, has sparked fears of higher costs and possible retaliation.
With winter ending, Europe’s gas storage levels remain two-thirds empty, raising concerns about refilling capacity before next winter. Market participants are watching for potential disruptions in global LNG supply, which could temporarily drive prices higher if demand spikes.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures opened lower but recovered slightly during the session. The most-traded DCE contract (I2505) closed at 788.5, marking a 0.32% daily decline. Traders continued selling based on market conditions, while steel mills adopted a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a muted transaction atmosphere. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 785-787 yuan/mt, down 2-3 yuan/mt from the previous session. Tangshan prices also declined slightly, with PB fines trading at 795-800 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, TSI 62% Fe iron ore fines on SGX were down 0.39% to $102.05 at 16h40 BST.
*Copper*
Copper prices weakened as Trump’s tariffs rattled investor sentiment, fueling concerns over economic disruption. However, tight U.S. supply has supported prices, as traders rushed to secure the metal before potential levies. Though copper itself is currently exempt, speculation is growing that Trump may introduce tariffs within weeks, much earlier than anticipated. His latest tariff package includes 54% duties on Chinese imports, alongside 20% on the EU, 24% on Japan, and 26% on India. A new 25% duty on imported vehicles has also heightened trade tensions.
At 16h37 BST, 3-month LME copper was trading at $9,360, down 3.53%
