17th March 2025
*Coal*
NEWC swaps dropped sharply today, extending losses from late last week as the physical Newcastle market remained under pressure amid abundant cargo supply. European gas prices also declined, with the front month down around 2.5%, though uncertainty over a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire added volatility.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices edged higher today as the U.S. launched strikes on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants in response to their attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping. Investors remained concerned about potential supply disruptions, with the U.S. vowing continued action until the Houthi threat subsides. Adding support, China announced plans to boost consumer spending, while stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced confidence in the country’s recovery. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a swift end to the Ukraine war, which could restore Russian energy supplies, remains low. Brent crude was up 0.41% at $70.35, while WTI gained 0.36% to $67.15, both for April settlement at 15:25 GMT.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures slipped to €41.7/MWh on Monday, retracing part of last week’s 9% rally as traders assessed heating demand and ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia. Market concerns persist over Europe’s ability to replenish gas storage, currently at 35%, with a 90% target set for November 1. Hopes for a resolution to the Ukraine war remain dim despite U.S. President Donald Trump seeking Putin’s backing for a 30-day ceasefire plan, which Ukraine accepted last week. Heavy aerial strikes continued over the weekend, maintaining uncertainty over supply security. Dutch TTF gas was down 2.52% at €41.15 as of 15:25 GMT.
*Iron Ore*
Dalian iron ore futures softened, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 778.5 yuan/mt, down 1.14% on the day. Traders showed moderate selling interest, while steel mills remained cautious, purchasing only as needed. Market sentiment was muted. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 778-780 yuan/mt, down 10-15 yuan/mt from the previous session. Additionally, weak January-February real estate data dampened sentiment, as new construction starts saw a significant YoY decline. Market focus remains on downstream demand, which could provide some price support. 62%Fe TSI iron ore futures on SGX rose 0.7% to $102.85.
*Copper*
Copper prices climbed today, supported by a weaker dollar and China’s latest stimulus measures, though concerns over U.S. tariffs capped gains. The dollar hovered near a five-month low amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies. Over the weekend, China announced a policy package aimed at increasing household income, boosting spending, and supporting population growth, reinforcing optimism for stronger industrial demand. LME 3-month copper was trading at $9,853, up 0.74%.
