19th March 2025
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude hovered near $71 per barrel as rising U.S. crude inventories and economic concerns offset geopolitical tensions. The EIA reported a larger-than-expected 1.75 million barrel increase in stockpiles, though inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined, and fuel reserves fell. Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, Jerome Powell’s comments, and ongoing trade tensions under President Trump.
OPEC+ plans to raise production next month, adding supply-side pressure. Meanwhile, Putin rejected a Ukraine ceasefire but agreed to a U.S.-backed proposal for Moscow and Kyiv to halt strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, potentially paving the way for Russian oil’s return to global markets. Brent futures for April settlement were up 0.41% at $70.39.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices extended gains for a second day as concerns over low storage levels outweighed softer demand from milder spring temperatures. Dutch TTF gas rose 7% to €43.32/MWh, driven by geopolitical risks in Ukraine.
Russian President Putin, in talks with U.S. President Trump, proposed a temporary halt on attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, European gas storage remains below 35%, well short of the 90% target set for November 1.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures extended losses, with the most-traded I2505 contract hitting a new March low, closing at 760 yuan/mt (-2.12%). Market sentiment remained weak as traders showed little selling interest, and steel mills purchased only as needed.
In Shandong, PB fines traded at 760-765 yuan/mt, down 10-15 yuan from yesterday, while in Tangshan, prices slipped 15 yuan to 770 yuan/mt. On SGX, TSI 62% Fe iron ore futures fell 0.50% to $99.90.
*Copper*
Copper prices surged past $5 per pound, reaching new 10-month highs amid tightening spot market conditions. Inventories at London and Shanghai exchanges continued to decline, while demand optimism grew following China’s announcement of a special action plan to boost consumer spending.
A global rush to front-run potential U.S. tariffs has further tightened supply, with 100,000-150,000 metric tons of refined copper expected to arrive at U.S. ports in the coming weeks—potentially exceeding the all-time record of 136,951 tons set in January 2022, Bloomberg reported.
The price gap between COMEX and LME copper widened beyond $1,200/ton, creating a strong incentive for traders to divert shipments to the U.S. LME copper futures have risen over 13% YTD on China’s improving demand and constrained supply, while COMEX prices have soared 25% in anticipation of tariffs, RBC Capital analysts noted.
By late afternoon, LME three-month copper was up 0.48% to $9,955/tonne, while COMEX copper rose 1.28% to $5.057/lb.
