14th March 2025
*Story of the Week – GOLD HITS $3,000*
Gold hit $3,000/oz for the first time, driven by central bank buying, economic uncertainty, and President Trump’s tariffs on allies and rivals alike. With traders rushing to import bullion into the U.S. ahead of levies, domestic gold prices surged above international benchmarks. Seen as a safe-haven asset in geopolitical turmoil, gold has gained nearly 14% this year. As of 16h14 GMT, COMEX gold had pulled back to $2,994.60/oz but was still up 3.30% on the day.
*Coal*
China’s coal output is set to rise by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons in 2025 after a record-breaking 2024, as the country boosts mining capacity to mitigate risks from carbon emission limits and mine closures due to safety breaches. This comes as utilities grapple with record-high coal inventories, up 12% over the two months ending October. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal production hit an all-time high of 836 million tonnes in 2024, surpassing its target by 18%, though growing investment in alternative power sources is expected to cap future coal demand.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures rebounded above $70 per barrel, recovering losses from the previous session, as new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping tightened supply. Washington blacklisted Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and vessels linked to Tehran’s covert crude exports. Meanwhile, Russia’s rejection of a U.S.-backed Ukraine ceasefire lowered chances of sanctions relief and a return of Russian oil to markets. However, macroeconomic headwinds kept oil under pressure, with the IEA warning of a growing surplus as OPEC+ ramps up production while trade tensions weaken demand. The agency forecasts a supply overhang of 600,000 bpd this year, with demand expected to rise by just 1.03 million bpd, 70,000 bpd below last month’s estimate. Brent was last trading at $70.27, up 0.58%.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore rebounded to CNY 795/tonne after hitting a two-month low of CNY 770 on March 10, as China unveiled measures to boost consumption and stabilise its struggling property sector. The government’s plan aims to prevent further developer liquidations, easing fears in one of the world’s largest steel-consuming sectors. However, expectations of steel output cuts—rumoured at 50 million tonnes per year—capped further price gains. Mills remain pessimistic on demand, though rising profits and molten iron production have kept the market tight. Iron ore port inventories continue destocking beyond seasonal trends, supporting prices. SGX 62% TSI iron ore futures rose 0.71% to $102.16.
*Copper*
Copper retreated from a five-month high as disappointing Chinese loans data and U.S. tariff concerns weighed on sentiment. China’s new bank lending fell sharply in February, dampening demand expectations for the world’s top metals consumer. The market remains torn between tariff-driven cost increases for U.S. buyers and fears that slowing growth will weaken demand. LME 3-month copper slipped 0.12% to $9,771.50 this afternoon.
