12th March 2025
Coal
Coal prices continued to decline today, extending their retracement from last week’s rally. Newcastle and DES ARA physical markets softened, applying further downward pressure on swaps. This follows yesterday’s moderate weakness, with today’s session seeing a more pronounced pullback as support levels thinned.
Meanwhile, European gas prices stabilized, showing less volatility than in previous sessions. However, shorter-dated contracts fell by around 2%, adding to the bearish sentiment across energy markets. This marks a shift from yesterday’s volatility, where gas prices had been more sensitive to geopolitical risks and storage concerns.
Brent Crude
Oil rebounded from a six-month low, climbing nearly 2% to $70.39 this afternoon. Prices found support despite a report showing U.S. inventories rose more than expected, as a weaker U.S. dollar made commodities priced in the currency more attractive. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) also provided a bullish outlook, forecasting that the oil market will remain undersupplied until Q3, a shift from its previous expectation of rising inventories by June.
Dutch TTF Gas
European natural gas prices fell 2.66% to €42.27, reversing a three-day rally, after Ukraine accepted a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The truce has fueled speculation that Russian gas flows to Europe could increase, easing supply concerns. While Europe has diversified its energy sources, it remains heavily dependent on Russian LNG, which has not faced the same reduction efforts as pipeline gas. With storage levels below 36%, the EU remains vulnerable to price volatility as winter gas demand outpaces forecasts.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices gained 0.5% in Asian trading, tracking a broader commodity rally. The Dalian Commodity Exchange’s most-traded contract settled at 775.5 yuan/mt, as U.S. trade policy developments added uncertainty. While Trump rescinded his threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, the upcoming 25% U.S. steel tariff could disrupt trade flows and affect iron ore demand if Chinese steel exports struggle to find alternative buyers.
Copper
Copper prices surged past $4.80/lb, hitting a nine-month high, as concerns grew over potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports. President Trump signed an executive order for a review on copper tariffs, escalating fears that new trade barriers could strain U.S. supply, which relies on imports for nearly half its consumption. Meanwhile, in China, refined copper production remains high, but negative treatment charges signal an oversupply of concentrate. Analysts predict that Chinese smelter maintenance in April could tighten supply, potentially providing further price support. LME 3-month copper was up 1.25% to $9,772.50 at 16h01 GMT.
