11th March 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices softened slightly as NEWC swaps saw more pronounced declines, retracing some of their recent gains. In contrast, European gas prices remained volatile, reacting to geopolitical tensions, with shorter-dated contracts surging ~6% by the close, offering some support to API2 swaps, though relative weakness persisted in NEWC. In other news, India’s thermal coal imports fell for the sixth consecutive month in February, as higher domestic production and sluggish demand growth from industry and power generation reduced reliance on imports. Over the past six months, India’s coal imports—the world’s second-largest after China—are estimated to have declined by 20% to 77.3 million tons. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the Mining Association has urged the government to reconsider plans to hike royalties on coal, nickel, copper, gold, and tin, citing rising operational costs and tight cash flow among miners. Authorities argue the proposed increases aim to improve industry governance, but concerns persist over their impact on an already pressured sector.
*Brent Crude*
Oil rebounded from a six-month low as bargain hunting lifted prices, despite fears of a U.S. recession. Brent crude rose to $69.33 (+0.77%) for April settlement at 16h38 GMT, recovering from Monday’s selloff. Trade tensions remain a key risk, with U.S. tariffs on major suppliers like Canada and Mexico, along with China’s retaliatory measures, adding uncertainty. Signs of deflationary pressures in China, the world’s top oil importer, further weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak reaffirmed OPEC+’s plan to increase production in April, though he hinted at a possible reversal if market imbalances emerge.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices climbed past €41.5/MWh, recovering from last week’s five-month low of €37.8/MWh, driven by colder weather forecasts and intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine. Between March 12-18, temperatures across Europe are expected to drop, boosting demand. Russian forces launched an offensive in Sudzha, a key gas transit hub, raising concerns over supply disruptions. EU gas storage levels are 36.8% full, well below the 90% target by November 1, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
*Iron Ore*
Dalian iron ore futures opened lower but closed slightly higher, with the I2505 contract settling at 774.5 yuan/mt (-0.06%). Market sentiment remained cautious as steel mills restocked only as needed. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 775 yuan/mt, while Tangshan prices held at 780-785 yuan/mt. Blast furnace maintenance tracked by SMM fell to 1.5882 million mt, down 25,600 mt WoW, with a further 200,800 mt decline expected next week. Pig iron production is increasing, supporting prices, though weak macroeconomic sentiment limits further gains. 62% Fe TSI iron ore futures on SGX traded at $100.99, down -0.30%.
*Copper*
Base metals rallied, with LME 3-month copper at $9653 (+1.33%) by 16h03 GMT, as concerns grew that U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium could extend to copper. Comex copper has surged 16% YTD, now at a 10%-12% premium over LME, with Morgan Stanley suggesting further upside. On the supply side, Chile’s copper output in January dropped 24% MoM, hitting a nine-month low, further tightening supply and supporting prices.
