10th March 2025
*Coal*
The bullish momentum continued strongly across commodity indices today, with significant gains across the board. European gas prices remained volatile, with the front-month contract closing 3% higher, providing some support to API2 swaps. Meanwhile, physical Newcastle coal saw stronger buying interest, which further lifted activity in NEWC swaps, adding to the overall positive sentiment in the energy complex.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude briefly rose to $70.70 earlier in the day before retreating on concerns over China’s economic outlook. The world’s largest crude importer reported weaker-than-expected inflation data, with prices falling below zero for the first time in 13 months, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures. Adding to the bearish sentiment are escalating trade tensions, as retaliatory tariffs introduce uncertainty across commodity markets. Meanwhile, renewed peace talks to end the three-year war in Ukraine have also weighed on prices. At 16h00 GMT, Brent was down 0.7% at $69.87.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices rose today, driven by a cold snap across the continent and escalating military action in Ukraine’s Kursk region. Russian forces reportedly used a pipeline as part of an offensive to push Ukrainian troops out of Sudzha, a key hub for gas measurement and transfer stations along a pipeline that once transported Russian natural gas to Europe. These developments have renewed concerns over supply risks. At 16h10 GMT, Dutch TTF futures were up 5.8% at $41.02.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore markets remained weak as traders hesitated to sell, while steel mills purchased only as needed, keeping market activity subdued. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 771-774 yuan/mt, down 1-5 yuan from the previous session. Global iron ore shipments totalled 34.28 million mt this week, marking a 7.5% WoW decline. Despite tightening supply providing some price support, market confidence remains weak due to the lack of major policy announcements from recent key meetings. 62% TSI iron ore futures on SGX edged up slightly to $101.29.
*Copper*
Copper prices declined for a second consecutive session, pressured by disappointing economic data from China. Recent reports revealed that both consumer and producer prices fell in February, reinforcing concerns about deflation in the world’s top copper consumer.
Despite Beijing’s reassurances about policy measures to stimulate growth at a recent political meeting, China’s economic outlook remains uncertain, weighed down by weak domestic demand and an intensifying trade war with the US. At 16h02 GMT, LME 3-month copper was down 0.75% at $9,546.50.
