4th March 2025
*Coal*
The upward momentum from yesterday continued into the morning, with API2 and NEWC gaining $1-$2 before weaker European gas prices pressured coal swaps, bringing them back near unchanged, with API2 slipping slightly further.
European gas prices remain highly volatile, with shorter-dated contracts down nearly 4%. Meanwhile, DES ARA markets saw modest support, while physical Newcastle remained quiet but steady.
*Brent Crude*
OPEC+ confirmed its planned April production increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first since 2022. While the group had previously cut output by 2.2 million bpd, there are indications this could be gradually reversed between April 2024 and September 2026, though OPEC+ cautioned that adjustments remain subject to market conditions. Adding to the bearish outlook, Trump suspended military aid to Ukraine and reportedly asked the Treasury to review possible Russian sanctions relief, raising speculation about increased Russian oil flows. As of 16:32 GMT, Brent for April settlement fell 1.73% to $60.94.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
Market sentiment remains cautious amid US-Ukraine tensions. Prices are also under pressure as warmer-than-normal temperatures this week slow withdrawals. However, a potential cold snap later in March could lift demand. As of this afternoon, Dutch TTF Gas is down nearly 6% at €43.08.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures extended last week’s losses, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 779.5 yuan/mt, down 2.81%. Traders were moderate sellers, while steel mills maintained a low-volume, high-frequency buying approach. In Shandong and Tangshan, PB fines fell 10-15 yuan/mt from Friday’s levels.
Supply remains ample—last week, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil surged 37.7% WoW to a yearly high, even as port arrivals fell 11%. Meanwhile, China’s Two Sessions meeting and severe smog forecasts prompted Tangshan steel mills to reduce blast furnace output, potentially curbing near-term pig iron production. On SGX, 62% Fe TSI spot iron ore is at $100.81.
*Copper*
Copper prices fell Tuesday as Trump’s 25% tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico took effect, escalating trade tensions. China retaliated with higher levies on US agricultural and food products, moving both economies closer to a full-scale trade war. Despite the volatility, copper remained in a tight trading range as markets awaited further clarity. As of 17:21 GMT, LME 3-month copper was at $9,355.50.
